Why market participants are optimistic about the BTC growth in the first half of next year, according to analysts.
Trader Nicolas Merten believes that bitcoin will be in a “sideways position” for the next few months and will return to active growth in March next year and rise to $100,000. In the most optimistic scenario, the price of the first cryptocurrency may grow to $200,000, Merten said.
The architect of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and an analyst who goes by the moniker PlanB admitted in November that the bitcoin price could reach $500 thousand by the start of next year. The expert argues that the first cryptocurrency is somewhere in the middle of the current “bullish” trend and the peak growth may be much higher than expected forecasts.
Crypto experts evaluated analysts’ forecasts and explained bitcoin’s prospects for next year.
Regulator has no plan to ban BTC or other cryptocurrencies
BTC is not a security, and its value depends not only on technical and fundamental analysis, but also on many factors that have a significant impact on the rate, explained the development director of the cryptocurrency exchange EXMO Maria Stankevich. According to her, despite the presence of a certain “bullish” trend, trying to predict bitcoin price in the next year is nothing more than guessing by coffee grounds.
Bitcoin has intrinsic potential, according to the expert. She added that the cryptocurrency’s potential is confirmed by various onchain data and large purchases of bitcoin by “whales” during corrections. However, Stankevich reminded that various negative events can significantly affect the quotations of the crypto market.
“Whales” are referred to as investors – large holders of digital assets.
“One possible SEC decision to ban bitcoin or USDT could have a significant impact on the rate,” the expert said.
On Dec. 1, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler called bitcoin an autonomous alternative and competitor to the U.S. banking system. Earlier, Gensler claimed that the regulator has no plans to ban BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
The potential remains
All forecasts regarding cryptocurrencies should be taken with a high degree of skepticism, says Nikita Soshnikov, director of the cryptocurrency exchange service Alfacash. He agreed with Nicholas Merten that bitcoin will return to the active growth phase after a period of sideways movement, as the cryptocurrency retains the potential to move up.
“This scenario is supported by the continued growth in the share of hodlers – investors who prefer to keep bitcoins for the long term in their personal wallets. This has a certain stimulating effect on the bitcoin exchange rate,” the expert noted.
Soshnikov expressed doubts about the possibility of increasing the price of bitcoin up to $200 thousand next year. The coin will have to quadruple its value to do so, but, in his opinion, there are not enough incentives for such growth. The trigger for more than fourfold growth in 2022 could be the launch of the first US spot bitcoin-ETF, Soshnikov said.
“We’ll see $200k, but not in the next few months. My forecast is mid-2023,” the expert added.
Market on the positive side
According to Crypterium co-founder Vladimir Gorbunov, the current sideways movement in the crypto market does not pose any real concerns for crypto investors. According to him, this indicates that most market participants are in a positive frame of mind.
“If I was asked personally whether I believe that bitcoin will cost $500 thousand in a few years, without fixating on how many years exactly, I would say that unequivocally yes,” the expert noted.
According to Gorbunov’s forecast, the first quarter of next year will be positive for the crypto market because there are no factors for the growth of negativity so far. New participants are entering the market, trading volumes are growing and promising projects are emerging in the industry, the expert said. After a period of active growth in early 2022, the digital asset market is likely to correct and this correction will last until approximately autumn, Gorbunov predicted.