QCP Capital: Long-term Bitcoin holders are putting pressure on the market by taking profits.
QCP Capital has published a new report in which analysts explain the reasons for Bitcoin's recent decline. They believe the main factor driving the market downwards is profit-taking by long-term cryptocurrency holders.
November started with a fall
Bitcoin started November with a decline, falling from $110,000 to $107,000 during the Asian trading session. Blockchain data shows that long-term holders transferred large amounts of Bitcoin to the Kraken exchange. This activity continues the outflow observed in October and explains Bitcoin's first negative October since 2018.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Binance
QCP analysts believe the theory that established cryptocurrency holders are driving the current market consolidation is valid. Recent selloffs, including today's, have occurred without any clear macroeconomic catalysts, even as stocks and other risky assets perform well amid a favorable political climate.
Volatility is rising, but there is no fear.
Volatility has increased slightly over the past week, with the skew still tilted toward put options. However, market positioning suggests there are no serious concerns about another major decline. Leverage has been largely flushed out of the system—open interest in perpetual contracts has remained low since October 10, when mass liquidations occurred, and funding rates remain at zero.
Bitcoin's resilience is impressive
While price movement may remain limited until long-term holders complete their asset redistribution, Bitcoin's resilience is noteworthy. The market has absorbed approximately 405,000 bitcoins from long-term holders over the past month, failing to break the $100,000 mark.
Despite a slowdown in accumulation by corporations like Strategy and Metaplanet, as well as some selling by smaller companies with crypto treasuries, spot prices remain well supported. Even the outflow of funds from ETFs last week failed to break Bitcoin's current range.
End of cycle or temporary correction?
However, as Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a multi-month range reminiscent of the period before the 2024 breakout, speculation has emerged that this cycle is nearing its end. Whether this marks the beginning of a new “crypto winter” remains unclear.
For now, long-term holders are locking in profits, while institutional inflows and cryptocurrency adoption continue to strengthen the market's fundamentals. The current situation represents a lull before the decisive move—time will tell which way the scales will tip.
Source: cryptonews.net
