BTC/XAU chart collapses after gold prices hit record highs despite billionaire Salinas' $1.5 million call on BTC
- Gold hits new record as Bitcoin falls to nearly $105,000 in mixed risk flows
- Ricardo Salinas predicts Bitcoin will rise by $1.516 million as capital markets unfold.
- BTC to gold ratio recovers after breaking key trend line
Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego is betting that Bitcoin (BTC) will need to rise 14-fold, reaching $1.516 million, to match gold's new $30 trillion market cap. Salinas's bold $1.5 million Bitcoin bet has paid off, as BTC is trading around $105,522 today, down 5% in the last 24 hours.
This is in stark contrast to gold (XAU), which just hit a new all-time high of $4,380. The fourteen-fold gap highlights the long-term focus on capital rotation, even though short-term charts favor the metal.
Why the $1.5 Million Bitcoin Bet Is So Important Today
Salinas Pliego, who reportedly holds 70% of his investment portfolio in Bitcoin, sets a minimum price of $1.516 million to reach parity with gold. His calculations are based on gold's recent market capitalization of $30 trillion.
The billionaire predicts this 14-fold increase will occur over the next 12 months, with BTC outperforming subsequent bull markets. However, this long-term thesis is confronted with a harsh short-term reality.
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Price Analysis: BTC vs. Gold (BTC/XAU)
Although Salinas is betting on Bitcoin, recent market developments favor the metal. Gold (XAU) has risen approximately 64% since the beginning of the year, reaching a new all-time high near $4,380 on October 17 and subsequently settling at $4,310.
Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction. The price of BTC fell more than 5% in the same 24-hour period, briefly touching the range low of $103,598 before finding support around $105,522. This decline pushed Bitcoin's market capitalization down to $2.1 trillion, still higher than major stocks like Meta Platforms and Saudi Aramco.
Source: Market capitalization of companies
Levels and structure
Technical analysis of the BTC/XAU pair shows that the path to $1.5 million will face immediate obstacles. The pair, which reflects Bitcoin's price against gold, recently broke a critical ascending logarithmic support line that has held since January 2024.
Source: TradingView
This breakout followed a triple bounce from the 36.16 resistance level, which coincides with the pair's 2021 all-time high. The chart now shows a potential head-and-shoulders (H&S) top—a classic bearish reversal pattern.
Pulse
Momentum indicators confirm the short-term bearish trend for Bitcoin against gold. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is showing a clear bearish divergence, signaling a weakening of the previous uptrend before breaking through the support line. For the 12-month bullish scenario from Salinas to materialize, the BTC/XAU pair must first reverse this breakout and reclaim its multi-year logarithmic support.
What changes the future path
The key factor in achieving the long-term $1.5 million goal is accelerating the capital turnover from gold to Bitcoin. Long-term investors and sovereign entities increasing their BTC holdings play a key role in this.
This trend extends to the US government, whose strategic reserve currently holds approximately 198,000 BTC, worth over $20.8 billion. The government has previously used Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation and national debt.
Read also: Bitcoin Q4 Forecast: $100K Opening, $88K Risk, $125K Record-Breaking Breakout
Source: cryptonews.net
