Bitcoin Volatility Falls Below 30%, $114K Resistance Seen at Bull Eye
- Bitcoin volatility has fallen below 30%, signaling an unusually calm but fragile phase.
- Realized gains and ETF inflows are down nearly 50% from recent peaks.
- Analysts expect a short-term rise to $114 thousand.
Bitcoin's price dynamics have entered a decisive phase, with both on-chain and off-chain signals painting a picture of fragility and potential volatility.
According to Glassnode and Bitcoin Vector, the cryptocurrency is currently testing critical levels that could determine whether the market is headed for a short-term rebound or whether the bears will take over.
Volatility compression rarely lasts long
All short-term realized volatility measures are now below 30%, which was last seen after the $107,000 low. Historically, such periods of low volatility tend to be short-lived, often followed by sharp price swings.
Momentum Weakening: ETF Earnings and Flows
Blockchain profits continue to rise. Glassnode data shows realized profits (30-day simple moving average) have fallen to $1.17 billion per day, down nearly 47% from a peak of $2.2 billion in June.
While this figure is still above the bear market baseline of less than $800 million, it shows that enthusiasm among market participants is waning.
ETF flows have also weakened. Net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen to about 980 BTC/day based on a 90-day simple moving average, down nearly half from the July peak of 1,960 BTC/day. This suggests that institutional demand from traditional financial institutions is weakening.
4/ A similar trend appears in Netflow to US Spot ETFs (90D-SMA), now at ~980 BTC/day — down ~50% from the July peak of 1,960 BTC/day. This marks a clear decline in TradFi buy-side momentum, signaling weakening institutional demand.https://t.co/DFVYO8YcNO pic.twitter.com/84GBwDbCBB
— glassnode (@glassnode) September 9, 2025
Traders Focus on Post-Squeeze Levels
Bitcoin Vector emphasizes that the real focus is not on the breakout itself, but on what comes after the squeeze. BTC is currently looking to reclaim the lows of the previous range at $112-$121K.
Glassnode suggested that a rise to $114,000 is likely, although the broader trend still leans towards a bearish continuation unless the price finally breaks through that threshold.
Forget the breakout: what matters is what happens after compression breaks.$BTC is now pushing to reclaim the prior range lows at $112K–$121K. A daily close above $112K would be highly significant.
The real test comes at $113.6K and $115.6K. If BTC establishes in that zone, a… pic.twitter.com/7vQlqpso9x
— Bitcoin Vector (@bitcoinvector) September 8, 2025
Key BTC Levels
A daily close above $112,000 would be in the bulls' favor, with the real test coming at $113,600 and $115,600. Support in this area could trigger a rally in BTC.
Related: El Salvador Buys $50 Million in Gold – Is This Its Next Hedging Tool After Bitcoin?
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading around $111,100, within the 0.85-0.94 quantile base price range of $104,100-$114,100. Glassnode described this range as historically consistent with post-euphoria consolidation.
Consolidation Range
Bitcoin is currently trading at $111.1k, stuck between the 0.85 and 0.94 quantile cost basis band ($104.1k–$114.1k). This range historically marks post-euphoria consolidation. A break below signals further exhaustion, while a reclaim above $114k could mark… pic.twitter.com/4cOnwDRDFQ
— glassnode (@glassnode) September 9, 2025
A break below $104,000 would likely signal further exhaustion, while a recovery above $114,000 could confirm renewed demand strength.
The coming days will likely determine whether the bulls can regain control of the market structure or whether the consolidation ends with further downward pressure.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analysts Expect $113K Bounce As CME Gap Confirms Support
Source: cryptonews.net
