Bitcoin Price Prediction: Traders Bet on $100K as Market Awaits Breakout Signal

• Bitcoin price is hovering around $106,900 today, with buyers holding support at $105,000–$104,000.
• On-chain flows are showing little inflow after a $1.6 billion outflow earlier this week.
• Polymarket odds estimate the probability that the price of Bitcoin will be below $100,000 by the end of October at 38%.

Bitcoin is consolidating near $106,900 today, with buyers attempting to hold support in the $105,000–$104,000 range after a volatile week. This move occurred after BTC briefly broke above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) cluster, sparking speculation about whether the correction is ending or just beginning.

Bitcoin price tests multi-month support

BTC Price Dynamics (Source: TradingView)

BTC remains squeezed between the $108,000 and $113,000 EMAs, with sellers defending the upper range.

The chart shows a break of the long-term ascending trendline from April, suggesting a short-term bias towards consolidation or a potential retest of the $104,000 liquidity zone.

The 20-day EMA is at $113,719, and the 50-day EMA is at $114,463. Both lines are above the current price, confirming resistance. The 200-day EMA near $108,063 acts as a key pivot level; a return to this level will be crucial for restoring bullish momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 35.9, indicating short-term oversold conditions but not yet a confirmed reversal. Momentum has slowed, while the MACD readings continue to point to sellers.

Intrachain flows show slight relief after major outflows

BTC Netflows (Source: Coinglass)

After a net outflow of nearly $1.6 billion over the past five days, Coinglass data shows a modest net inflow of $17.6 million on October 18, marking the first positive day in a week.

However, this inflow is too small to indicate significant accumulation, and broader flow trends remain negative.

Traders are cautiously rebuilding their positions, but the ongoing outflow of funds since early October indicates ongoing profit-taking and a decline in institutional demand. Until a steady inflow of funds is restored, the market may remain defensive, despite technical stabilization.

Polymarket traders shift focus to $100,000 scenario

BTC Price Forecast (Source: Polymarket)

Polymarket's prediction market data indicates a bearish sentiment among speculators. The most likely outcome now stands at 38% for Bitcoin to fall below $100,000 by the end of October, while only 7% of bets suggest a rise above $130,000.

Less than 1% of traders expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000-$200,000 this month, highlighting the waning enthusiasm after recent volatility.

The change shows how sentiment has shifted sharply from greed to caution over the course of a few weeks, coinciding with technical weakness across the charts.

Bitcoin Price Technical Forecast

Bitcoin's immediate roadmap depends on whether the bulls can reclaim the $108,000–$113,000 zone.

• Upside targets: A daily close above $113,000 could open the door to $118,000 and $126,000, where previous highs are located.
• Downside Risks: Failure to hold $105,000 could expose deeper support near $100,000-$98,000, followed by $92,000 as the next major pocket of liquidity.
• Indicators: RSI is around 36 points, which is oversold, suggesting the possibility of a short-term rebound, although EMAs are still pointing down, which makes it necessary to be cautious about medium-term trends.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Rise in Price?

Bitcoin's future path depends on reclaiming lost EMA levels and avoiding a decisive fall below $104,000. A small influx of funds hints at a possible easing of capitulation, but confidence in success remains low.

If BTC closes above $108,000 and gains momentum above $113,000, traders could see a moderate rally to $118,000–$120,000. On the other hand, if selling resumes, $100,000 remains the most likely traction level, supported by both technical signals and market rate trends.

Bitcoin currently exists in a delicate balance, where macroeconomic pressures, ETF flows, and sentiment dynamics will determine whether October ends with a recovery or a deeper correction.

Source: cryptonews.net