Bitcoin Price Forecast: Fed QE Pause, Trump-Xi Summit Bring $118K
- Bitcoin price is holding near $113,800 today, with buyers defending support at $112,000 as the volatility squeeze intensifies.
- The Fed's decision to end quantitative easing could help inject liquidity, and a dovish outcome is seen as bullish for Bitcoin.
- The Trump-Xi summit could provide momentum as progress in trade talks could potentially lift BTC to the $118,000 target.
Bitcoin is hovering around $113,800 today, down slightly after a brief recovery following last week's correction. The market remains tense ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and the Trump-Xi Jinping summit, which could determine short-term liquidity trends for risky assets.
Buyers defend the $112,000 zone as the squeeze intensifies
BTC Price Forecast (Source: TradingView)
On the daily chart, Bitcoin's price continues to fluctuate around the 20, 50, and 100 EMA cluster between $112,400 and $112,800, which has served as a critical benchmark since early October. The lower Bollinger Band near $111,600 coincides with horizontal support, marking the base of this consolidation.
The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) is near $108,300, confirming the overall uptrend structure. A sustained close above $114,500 would confirm a break of the short-term descending trendline and expose the upper portion of the Bollinger Band at $118,600. On the other hand, a drop below $111,600 could trigger a retest of $108,000, where buyers previously actively entered the market.
This contraction phase has reduced volatility, and traders are preparing for a breakout once macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Bitcoin price volatility remains low for now, but is poised to rise as important liquidity events unfold midweek.
Fed QT Pause Could Reignite Risk Appetite
Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now predicting that the Fed will end QT at the FOMC meeting this coming week.
Historically, when the Fed ends a phase of QT, $BTC and crypto have entered massive uptrends due to liquidity in the markets increasing. pic.twitter.com/urAIinp8Ku
— Satoshi Stacker (@StackerSatoshi) October 25, 2025
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is the key macroeconomic event this week. According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), policymakers are likely to halt quantitative easing (QT), effectively halting balance sheet outflows.
If confirmed, this decision will inject new dollar liquidity into the system, supporting both stocks and crypto assets. Bitcoin has historically demonstrated a strong correlation with liquidity cycles, and the end of QT could trigger renewed demand in both the spot and derivatives markets.
Conversely, if the Fed maintains its quantitative easing policy or moderates rate cut expectations, liquidity conditions could tighten again, putting pressure on speculative assets. Traders will also be closely monitoring Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's tone to determine how long the policy pause will last.
Related: Dogecoin Price Prediction: Market Set for Breakout with $812M in Options
In this context, the Bitcoin price forecast remains tied to macroeconomic sentiment regarding liquidity. A soft outcome would likely boost demand above $112,000, while a hawkish stance could push the market back toward the $108,000 support level.
Trump-Xi Jinping summit takes on geopolitical dimension
Trump-Xi Jinping summit takes on geopolitical dimensionTrump-Xi Jinping summit
The agreement is likely to increase global risk sentiment, weaken the dollar, and fuel investment in alternative assets such as Bitcoin. Historically, periods of reduced geopolitical tensions have coincided with rising cryptocurrency returns as investors shift to higher-yielding assets.
If negotiations reach an impasse or the rhetoric turns negative, risk appetite could quickly wane, increasing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and reducing speculative interest in cryptocurrencies. This dynamic makes Thursday's meeting a potential turning point for Bitcoin's short-term price movement.
Currency flows show moderate outflow
BTC Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
According to Coinglass, net Bitcoin flow on spot exchanges on October 28 was approximately -$24.8 million, indicating a slight outflow of BTC from exchanges. While this shift is not significant, it does indicate a gradual transfer of coins by holders to vaults, indicating a strengthening of confidence after the panicked decline last week.
Over the past month, capital outflows have consistently exceeded inflows, totaling over $500 million. This sustained trend in capital outflows suggests a constructive backdrop, as a reduction in supply on exchanges often precedes phases of price stabilization or gradual recovery.
However, the overall sentiment remains cautious. Funding rates and open interest have not yet risen, reflecting traders' reluctance to increase leverage ahead of the Fed's decision. A significant resumption of long-term inflows will be required to confirm a shift in short-term momentum.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Rise in Price?
Bitcoin's short-term price outlook depends on the Federal Reserve's liquidity signals and the outcome of the Trump-Xi Jinping summit. A soft pause in QT, coupled with positive trading news, could push BTC toward $118,000, signaling a resumption of the broader uptrend.
If policymakers delay liquidity relief measures or the summit proves disappointing, Bitcoin could reach $108,000 again before buyers regain control.
Currently, the Bitcoin price forecast remains cautiously optimistic for prices above $112,000. Traders are awaiting confirmation of a breakout or rebound from the squeeze that defined October's trading. A decisive move in either direction this week could set the tone for volatility in November.
Source: cryptonews.net
