XRP forecast: How high the Ripple coin will rise according to ChatGPT

The legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dragged on for four years. With the positive outcome and a more crypto-friendly stance from the new “Trump SEC,” XRP could now be poised for a strong upswing. Added to this are hopes for the imminent approval of XRP spot ETFs, the entry of additional XRP strategy firms, or even a Ripple IPO. But what impact would this have on the share price? We asked ChatGPT-5, OpenAI's latest AI model, about this very question – and the response is surprisingly nuanced.

XRP scenarios from ChatGPT-5: The moderate and the optimistic future outlook

Based on the current macroeconomic situation, technical indicators, and current on-chain data, ChatGPT-5 makes a firm prediction: “In the moderate scenario, I see XRP at around $4.50 by December 31, 2025. This is driven by a solid but not ecstatic market environment, cautiously increasing usage in cross-border payments (ODL), and gradually clearer regulation, especially in the US.” Since the Ripple coin is trading at $2.91 at the time of writing, this price forecast would correspond to a remarkable 54 percent return.

The necessary tailwind for this moderate scenario will be provided, among other things, by “a possible Ripple IPO narrative, without it necessarily becoming an event in 2025.” However, headwinds are to be expected from the new competition from stablecoins/CBDCs and the fact that enterprise adoption scales more slowly than typical crypto narratives. After all, Ripple has set itself the goal of revolutionizing cross-border payments and replacing the SWIFT system in the long term. In the medium case, XRP will benefit from the general crypto bull run and “moderately growing usage in payments,” but will lag behind the spectacular returns of other altcoins.

In the optimistic scenario, according to ChatGPT-5, XRP will even rise to around $7.00 by the end of the year. Support would come from “clear US regulation, measurably growing payment volumes via RippleNet/ODL, and an RLUSD effect as an institutional on-ramp,” which would also benefit the native XRP coin. The AI explains: “A late Bitcoin bull run would flush capital into large-cap alts, while a concrete IPO timeline would increase Ripple's visibility and credibility.” Overall, this would lead to “a revaluation: more usable volume, less legal risk, more institutional demand—and thus room for a price overshoot of previous cycle levels.” The fiat return for Ripple investors in this best-case scenario: 140 percent.

Underestimated risks and the pessimistic XRP scenario

According to ChatGPT-5, however, it's not a foregone conclusion that the Ripple coin is poised for new heights. Under certain circumstances, crypto investors could even lose money with an XRP investment, because: “In the pessimistic scenario, XRP will end up at around $2.00 by December 31, 2025, due to market weakness and measurable usage metrics in payment transactions falling short of expectations.” This would correspond to a price loss of 31 percent. The AI primarily points to three underestimated risks.

First, a “false start or postponement of the XRP Spot ETFs” is conceivable, whether due to regulatory hurdles, a meager listing with low net inflows, or even rapid outflows after launch, which could damage the Ripple narrative. After all, the Ethereum Spot ETFs also had a rather disappointing launch last summer, hindering ETH's price development rather than promoting it. Second, a “substitution by RLUSD/stablecoins/CBDCs” is conceivable, as treasury departments prefer low-volatility settlement, which would reduce XRP's relevance as a bridge asset, especially outside of a narrow niche. Cassie Craddock, Ripple's Managing Director for UK and Europe, also recognized this risk in an interview with BTC-ECHO.

Why XRP depends on the Bitcoin cycle

One thing is clear to the AI: “In the macro context, XRP is clearly following Bitcoin's lead.” Accordingly, in early bull phases, capital flows into BTC first, while altcoins – including XRP – typically follow with a delay. Historically, the strongest altcoin impulses “often occurred after a BTC top or sideways phase, such as late 2017/early 2018 or 2021, when profits from Bitcoin rotate into large caps.” Thus, the Ripple coin cannot be viewed in isolation from developments in Bitcoin or the rest of the crypto market. But what does this mean specifically for the coming months?

“For Q4 2025 – approximately 18–20 months after the 2024 halving – the classic cycle suggests that the market will enter a late phase of the bull market or a top-forming/volatility zone,” predicts ChatGPT-5. In such late cycles, BTC dominance often falters, the dispersion of returns increases, and large-caps like XRP could exploit short-term outperformance windows. The chatbot has one final recommendation for crypto investors: “Align timing and position sizes with the BTC trajectory, stagger profit-taking, and keep in mind that a hard BTC pullback disproportionately impacts altcoins.”

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When asked about the limitations of its own forecasting capabilities, ChatGPT-5 remains modest. The AI can be used to generate ideas, but it shouldn't be misunderstood as a signal generator: “ChatGPT-5 can bundle narratives, structure scenarios, and systematically list risks/catalysts—it's strong for that. It's significantly less suitable for pinpointing price targets, timing, or turning points.” Therefore, forecasts for XRP and other cryptocurrencies are primarily useful for structuring and falsifying theses—but are not suitable for “front-running” the market. You can find out what recommendations ChatGPT-5 has for building your own portfolio in this article: “The AI recommends this crypto portfolio for investors.”