“Probability of Bitcoin all-time high is 70 percent”
- Fueled by the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, prices on the crypto markets are rising, with Bitcoin reaching the psychologically important €100,000 mark.
- According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., a market observer specializing in Bitcoin, the probability of a new Bitcoin all-time high within two weeks is 70 percent. The current all-time high is $124,128, and Bitcoin is still 5.2 percent away from that.
- The analyst attributes this to BTC futures trading at higher prices than the spot price. “If a series of green trend confirmation signals emerge in the coming days, this would indicate new long openings and increase the likelihood of a new all-time high.”
- The development of the so-called Short-Term Holder MVRV Z-scores is also bullish. The indicators for the 155- and 365-day cohorts are currently close to zero, indicating a balanced market situation without overheating or oversold.
- At the same time, the Bitcoin price is trading just above the realized price of short-term holders. According to Adler Jr., this could lead to a one- to two-week consolidation phase followed by an upward movement.
- Meanwhile, according to SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of $2.8 billion since September 9. This development is seen as an additional support factor for the market. Adler Jr. stated: “There is a 70 percent probability that we will see a gradual uptrend in the next two weeks.”
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Sources
- X-Post by Axel Adler Jr.
- “The market is balanced”
- SoSoValue
