Michael Saylor: How high will the Bitcoin price really rise by 2045
More than three percent of all Bitcoin ever to exist is currently held in the treasury of Strategy, the leading BTC treasury firm. To be precise, after the recent Bitcoin purchase, Michael Saylor and his company own 632,457 BTC, valued at $71 billion. However, even though the number one corporate holder is rapidly approaching the ambitious goal of one Nakamoto (equivalent to one million BTC), there has recently been criticism from some MSTR shareholders. The reason is the lifting of a shareholder protection measure that prevented Strategy from selling new shares below 2.5 times its net asset value (mNAV).
While Michael Saylor justified the change in company policy by saying they wanted to “achieve greater flexibility in implementing the capital markets strategy,” many shareholders fear that their shares could be diluted in the long term. If the Bitcoin strategy firm issues new shares on a large scale, this would also reduce the number of BTC per share that shareholders indirectly hold.
At least in the short term, market participants are expressing their dissatisfaction with the more liberal share issuance policy – MSTR shares are currently trading at $342, a 15 percent drop compared to the previous month. Despite the controversy surrounding the decision, Strategy's management isn't wasting any time and is selling an additional 875,301 MSTR shares as part of its at-the-market (ATM) offering, according to a document filed with the SEC. With the $309 million raised, the former software company could acquire approximately 2,700 BTC at a current BTC price of $113,000.
Bitcoin forecast: 30 percent return per year for the next 20 years
But regardless of the strategy stock debate, Michael Saylor has a bullish forecast for traditional BTC investors. Not least because the Bitcoin treasury movement is growing ever larger, with 116 companies worldwide now accumulating BTC, the ambitious US entrepreneur announces: “My 20-year forecast for Bitcoin is a 30 percent return per year.” Since the leading cryptocurrency has achieved an average return of over 50 percent per year over the past five years, this hypothesis doesn't seem entirely unreasonable. This makes the resulting BTC price for 2045 all the more impressive. If Bitcoin actually rises by the 30 percent per year mentioned by Saylor from its current level, a single coin would cost a whopping $21.47 million in two decades.
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This is consistent with the Bitcoin price forecast Saylor announced at BTCPrague in June. His reasoning at the time: “Bitcoin is being adopted by governments, banks, corporations, and investors faster and more aggressively than many expected a year ago.” But it's never too late to get started, just as it's never too late to harness fire, electricity, and the internet: “Bitcoin is technology. It's only the ignorant speculators who think it's too late.”
But even crypto investors convinced by the super-bullish forecast should be aware of one thing: In reality, the Bitcoin price doesn't move linearly – rather, there are repeated sharp setbacks and volatile phases that can also result in significant annual losses. For example, a BTC average return of 30 percent within three years could mean a 40 percent gain in year 1, a 20 percent loss in year 2, and a 96 percent gain in year 3. Long-term Bitcoin holding is therefore not for investors with faint nerves. Saylor's advice: “Don't pay attention to what's happening right now; focus on the horizon.”
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Sources
- SEC document
- Saylor CNBC Interview
- MSTR chart