Bitcoin at $11.6 million by 2035: How realistic is that?
During a bull market, it seems to be common practice in the crypto space to outdo one another with Bitcoin price predictions. From $500,000 to $11.6 million by 2035 – the targets are gigantic and seem somewhat absurd. That's why BTC-ECHO reviewed the models. What's behind the assumptions, and how realistic are they really?
Bitcoin: From niche to the spotlight
Hardly any asset has polarized opinions as much as Bitcoin in recent years. For some, it's digital gold and the world's best inflation hedge; for others, it's a speculative risk with no intrinsic value. Price forecasts vary accordingly: While “conservative” analysts are already calling $500,000 a milestone, utopian models see Bitcoin reaching several million in the coming years. But which of these is legitimate, and where does the fantasy begin?
Bitwise: $1.3 million by 2035
One of the most well-founded forecasts currently comes from Bitwise Asset Management. In its report “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” the research team predicts a Bitcoin price of $1.3 million by 2035—equivalent to an annual return of 28.3 percent from today's levels.
This forecast is based on three factors. First, institutional demand for Bitcoin is just beginning to gain momentum. Large funds, pension funds, and even so-called family offices (private asset management firms of wealthy families) are increasingly aligning their portfolios with Bitcoin. Bitwise estimates that this demand alone could drive between one and five trillion US dollars into the market. Second, Bitcoin's supply remains strictly limited. Of the maximum 21 million coins, over 94 percent are already in circulation. Third, there is growing concern that governments will reduce their debt by devaluing fiat currencies. This environment increases the attractiveness of scarce assets such as gold or Bitcoin.
Companies, ETFs and states: Bitcoin as a strategic reserve
In addition, it's not just private investors and institutions that are accumulating Bitcoin. Companies and even governments have also begun to build up BTC as strategic reserves. Strategy is particularly notable, continuously buying and now holding around 632,000 Bitcoin—almost three percent of the maximum supply. This makes the company the world's largest private Bitcoin holder.
In addition, there are exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have raised massive amounts of capital since their approval in the US in January 2024. Together, ETFs and similar vehicles now hold around seven percent of all Bitcoins in circulation. At the same time, governments are also increasingly acting as holders. According to official figures, the US owns almost 198,000 BTC, making it the largest state-owned Bitcoin holder. But countries like China, the United Kingdom, and El Salvador have also built up significant reserves. All of this is contributing to a decrease in the available supply on the market – and an increase in scarcity.
Banks and research houses: conservative to bullish
Other financial institutions have also presented ambitious forecasts. Standard Chartered predicts a price of $500,000 by 2028. Alliance Bernstein sees Bitcoin at around $1 million by 2033. ARK Invest goes even further, expecting $1.5 million to $2.5 million by 2030. The most extreme is the strategy study, which predicts a price of $21 million by 2046.
This shows a clear trend: Even conservative banks expect Bitcoin to reach six-figure levels, while the most bullish forecasts outline sky-high prices.
Alternative models: The most utopian forecasts
Models from the crypto scene itself go even further. The stock-to-flow model, which has received much attention for years and is equally controversial, estimates a Bitcoin price of $11.6 million for 2035. The so-called power-law model calculates approximately $1.5 million. And the autocorrelation exchange rate model (BAERM) assumes around $7.5 million.
What all three approaches have in common is that they perpetuate historical patterns or scarcity logics without considering external factors such as regulation or technological disruption. Critics therefore accuse them of being overly optimistic and one-sided.
Ethereum as a comparison
Bitcoin isn't the only thing generating excitement. Ethereum is also being given ambitious predictions. British bank Standard Chartered expects a price of $7,500 by 2025 and, in the long term, even $25,000 by the end of the decade. Institutional treasury firms like BitMine and SharpLink are already accumulating billions in ETH.
Realism Check: Between Dream and Reality
As impressive as the numbers are, investors should exercise caution. The forecasts depend on several uncertain factors. While the regulatory climate in the US has become significantly more favorable since 2024, political shifts remain a risk. Institutional demand could also actually move trillions – or fizzle out if the narrative changes. Added to this are technological risks, such as advances in quantum computing, which could challenge the security of the Bitcoin network in the long term.
As a result, more conservative scenarios in the range of $500,000 to $1.5 million appear more plausible. Models that project $7 million or even $11.6 million reflect the enormous range of possible future scenarios rather than a reliable forecast.
Bitcoin thrives on grand narratives – and price predictions are part of that. Whether it's $500,000, $1.3 million, or $11.6 million: each number says less about tomorrow's reality than about today's expectations and hopes. For investors, this means: Utopias can inspire – but one's own investment strategy should always be based on conservative assumptions and clear risk management.
Recommended Video: Can Ethereum Reach $10,000 in 2025?
Sources:
- Bitwise Asset Management Report: Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions 2025
- Strategy buys more Bitcoin and now holds 632,457 BTC
- Strategy and Metaplanet control 3.1 percent of the total Bitcoin supply
- Why Bitcoin treasury companies are gaining importance and what this means for medium-sized companies
- Bitcoin holdings of countries and governments
- ETFs and crypto exchanges hold around 7 percent of Bitcoin supply
