Bitcoin's Q4 performance: $100,000 open, $88,000 risk, $125,000 record breakout
- On October 17, Bitcoin was trading at around $105,000, with volume up about 36%, indicating active reversal.
- Technical analysts are forecasting a possible retest of $88,000 to $90,000 before any push to new highs occurs.
- A week-end close above $125,000 would negate bearish forecasts and reopen the door to records.
On October 17, Bitcoin traded at $105,000 after a 5% daily drop and an 8% weekly decline. Turnover on major exchanges increased by approximately 36%, indicating that traders were refocusing on risk rather than immediately exiting the market.
Binance data showed that the seven-day average trading volume is close to its highest since March, currently at around $3.68 billion, consistent with a re-accumulation pattern where the price declines and activity increases. According to this pattern, the next trading decision will be made in the $100,000 to $105,000 zone, as traders monitor how demand absorbs supply.
Related: $4.0 trillion market, $1.8 trillion assets, $5.1 trillion spot: Q3 2025 sets new crypto highs
Q4 Performance Review and Key Metrics
The weekly chart maintains an ascending channel that has guided the uptrend since early 2023. Resistance is located near $124,000–$125,000. The main support level is at $100,000, and the risk zone is marked at $88,000–$90,000 along the lower boundary of the channel.
BTC Volume on Binance by Size | Source: TradingView
Analysts view $88,000 as a scenario, not a call, tied to a reversion to the trend's mean and previous demand points. This picture will change if the spot price rebounds to $112,000 and closes the week above $125,000, which would restore momentum and set the stage for a rally to new highs.
BTC Price Analysis: Between Support and Resistance
Levels
Bitcoin is currently trading near the middle of this channel, near its 20-week moving average. The RSI is at 47.7, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD histogram indicates a weakening bullish trend, but a reversal has not yet been confirmed. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains slightly positive, demonstrating a steady influx of funds into the market.
Source: TradingView
A breakout of $102,000 increases the likelihood of a move to $88,000-$90,000, where the lower channel boundary, the lower Bollinger Band, and the preliminary acceptance line converge. Holding above $105,000 keeps the recovery targets of $112,000 and then $124,000 in play.
Pulse
The weekly RSI hovered around 48, a neutral reading that doesn't confirm either a breakout or a trend resumption. The MACD histogram softened but failed to form a decisive bearish crossover on the weekly chart. This pattern corresponds to a consolidation pattern, where momentum declines while the structure remains unchanged.
Liquidity and chain data
Foreign exchange reserves remain near cyclical lows, limiting immediate selling pressure and supporting the interpretation of reaccumulation as trading volumes begin to ease. Financing rates have declined, and open interest has declined from recent peaks, reducing the risk of disorderly liquidation while maintaining the potential for a squeeze if the spot price rises above $112,000.
Net ETF flows have slowed, but spot markets have seen steady investor activity, helping to absorb the downturn without disruption.
Macro drivers
Macroeconomic liquidity tightened this week amid rising short-term funding costs in the US, putting pressure on risky assets. Futures positions normalized after a previous increase in leverage, somewhat easing the rapid moves in both directions.
With limited supply on exchanges and long-term holders stable, the path to Q4 depends on whether buyers can defend $100,000 on the downside and break $112,000 on the upside.
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Source: cryptonews.net
