Cryptocurrency bets on the Polymarket platform on the probability of a recession in the United States in 2025 have risen sharply after the release of data on the decline in American GDP. The probability of the event is estimated by crypto service participants at 67%, writes RBC Crypto.
This is the highest figure since the pool was launched earlier this year, with betting volume at $3.8 million.
Polymarket is the largest decentralized prediction market. Users bet on the outcome of events by buying “yes” or “no” tokens for cryptocurrency. The price of the token reflects the probability of the event: if “yes” costs $0.20, then the chance is estimated at 20%. Winning tokens bring $1, losing ones are zeroed out.
US GDP fell in the first quarter for the first time since 2022, Bloomberg reported. The figure fell by 0.3% year-on-year. The reasons for this are said to be the growth of imports before the introduction of tariffs and a decrease in consumer spending, which, in turn, was caused by US President Donald Trump's trade policy.
The S&P 500 opened lower and U.S. Treasury yields fell. On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said the U.S. economy “will take time” to prove the effectiveness of current policies and blamed his predecessor, Joe Biden, for the stock market’s plunge:
“This is a Biden Stock Market, not a Trump Stock Market. Tariffs are about to go into effect and businesses are starting to return to the U.S. at record rates. Our country is going to boom, but we need to get rid of the Biden Legacy. It will take time and has nothing to do with tariffs — he just left us with a bad record. But when it does boom, it will be like never before. Be patient!” Trump wrote.
It's been 100 days since Trump's inauguration on January 20, during which he has made a number of changes to the cryptocurrency industry. Trump has replaced the heads of key regulators, demanded that clear rules for the digital asset market be developed and implemented more quickly, and initiated the creation of a state reserve of bitcoins.
According to Polymarket participants, the probability of creating a national bitcoin reserve in the United States this year is 45%. The minimum was 38%, the maximum was 77%. Players bet $2.7 million on forecasts for this event.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
