Robinhood Crypto Revenue Expected to Fall in Q1 After Record Growth in Late 2024: JPMorgan
After a 700% increase in cryptocurrency revenue in Q4, analysts are predicting a decline in Q1 due to a decline in trading activity.
Author: Helen Brown | Edited by: Stephen Alpher Updated: April 29, 2025, 3:30 PM Published: April 29, 2025, 3:12 PM
What you need to know:
- JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington predicts Robinhood's crypto trading revenue will decline in the first quarter amid worsening market sentiment.
- This is in stark contrast to Q4 2024, when cryptocurrency became the main driver of broker transaction revenue growth.
- Worthington lowered his year-end price target to $44 from $45, while maintaining a neutral rating on the stock.
Robinhood's (HOOD) record crypto trading revenue from the last quarter of 2024 will be difficult to replicate, according to JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington, who expects digital asset volumes to decline in the first quarter of this year.
The online trading platform will release first-quarter results after the close of U.S. market trading on Wednesday.
A stunning 700% increase in cryptocurrency trading revenue in Q4 drove a significant increase in HOOD’s overall transaction-based revenue. However, Worthington believes that momentum will fade in Q1, citing a downturn in both the stock and crypto markets, particularly in the second half of the quarter.
Worthington and his team estimate that Robinhood users traded about $52 billion worth of cryptocurrency during the quarter, down from $71 billion in the fourth quarter. Worthington attributes the drop to the “risk-on” environment that has erased much of the market’s gains since the start of the year. Robinhood’s assets under management (AUC) are expected to decline 5% from the previous quarter to $183.3 billion, though still up 41% year-over-year.
While the report highlights strong retail buying in early April following tariff news out of Washington, Worthington suggests that the activity may not be enough to boost first-quarter results. He warns that weaker demand for margin and derivatives trading — also seen at competitor Interactive Brokers — could hurt Robinhood’s overall performance.
Worthington maintained a neutral rating on the stock and lowered his price target by $1 to $44, implying downside potential of about 10% from the current price just below $49.
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