Could Bitcoin Fall Below $100,000 Again?
Following the sharp drop on the night of November 4-5, 2025, when the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000, investors continue to be concerned about whether the crash will happen again in the near future.
Arguments for a repeat fall
1. Decline in institutional demand
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing daily outflows of $150 million to $700 million. This trend suggests that major players are taking profits and are in no hurry to return. Without institutional support, the price may not hold current levels.
2. Sales by long-term holders
Since July, owners of older coins have sold approximately 300,000 BTC. While they previously unloaded during price increases, they are now selling sideways and during declines. This behavior is typical during periods of market fatigue and often precedes a deeper correction.
3. Weakness in spot and derivative demand
Total Buying Volume (CVD) on major exchanges remains negative, indicating a predominance of sellers. At the same time, interest in futures is declining: the Perpetual Market Directional Premium has fallen almost threefold since spring. The market is effectively cooling.
4. Dominance of defensive positions
Options traders continue to buy contracts that generate profits if the price falls—so-called protective options. Increased demand for such instruments indicates that market participants remain wary of further declines and prefer to protect their positions rather than initiate new purchases.
5. Key support levels are below current levels
The Active Investors' Realized Price (AIP) is currently hovering around $88,500. If the current $100,000 zone fails, the market could test this range.
The case against a drop below $100,000
1. No signs of capitulation
Relative unrealized losses amount to just 3.1% of market capitalization. By comparison, during the bearish phases of 2022–2023, this figure exceeded 10%. The market currently resembles a moderate correction rather than a massive sell-off.
2. 71% of coins are still in profit
This ratio is typical for the middle of a cycle, when there is a break between growth impulses. At the same time, the coin holding structure remains stable, reducing the risk of panic selling.
3. Moderate volatility and risk control
Although short-term volatility increased, it quickly stabilized after touching $100,000. This shows that major participants are in control and panic is limited.
4. Technical oversold market
Many indicators point to oversold conditions. During such phases, rebounds often occur even without fundamental drivers—simply due to the exhaustion of sellers.
5. Potential for a return to demand
If Bitcoin manages to consolidate above $112,000–$113,000 in the coming weeks, it will confirm a recovery in short-term prices and restore buyer confidence. Given current fundamentals, such a scenario cannot be ruled out.
Result
The Bitcoin market is currently teetering on the brink: fundamental weakness is evident, but panic is absent. If pressure from long-term holders and institutional outflows continues, the $100,000 level could be broken again. In that case, BTC would open the way to $90,000.
However, if ETF flows stabilize and buying interest returns, the scenario of consolidation with a gradual recovery also remains realistic.
Bitcoin is back in the holding phase – oversold, but still strong.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
