What to expect from Bitcoin this week
RBC Crypto experts analyzed the market situation and assessed the Bitcoin price outlook for the next seven days.
“The market is divided in its assessment of the outlook.”
Vasily Girya, owner and CEO of GIS Mining
Bitcoin closed the week lower, despite a moderate recovery in the final days of the month. On October 31, the cryptocurrency celebrated the 17th anniversary of the publication of its founder, Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper—the document that ushered in the widespread adoption of decentralized finance.
BTC's rally at the end of the week coincided with positive dynamics in stock markets: the S&P 500 rose 0.3% in October, while the Nasdaq gained 4.9%. This was fueled by strong earnings reports from major tech companies. Amazon shares jumped 10.8% after publishing better-than-expected quarterly results, driven by growth in its cloud business.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement of an imminent trade agreement with China provided temporary support for stock market sentiment. However, the effect quickly faded after speeches by Federal Reserve officials, who reiterated their commitment to a cautious policy. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid stated that a premature rate cut carries the risk of renewed inflation, and his counterparts in Dallas and Cleveland supported his position. As a result, the probability of a rate cut at the December meeting, according to CME FedWatch, fell from 91.7% to 63%.
Glassnode observations show that wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have increased their balances by more than 45,000 coins since October 10th. This is a clear sign of renewed accumulation by institutional investors. They are using Bitcoin as a safe haven asset amid the prolonged US government shutdown and economic policy uncertainty.
As for Bitcoin itself, consolidation has been ongoing for three weeks: the range has narrowed to $106,300–$116,400, with the lower boundary gradually moving higher. This indicates the formation of sustainable demand during pullbacks.
However, October turned out to be a loss-making month for Bitcoin for the first time in seven years, breaking the so-called Uptober series—traditionally successful October rallies. Historically, this month has been among the cryptocurrency's most profitable, but in 2025, the cumulative decline was around 3%. Strong mid-month fluctuations, caused by tariff threats between the US and China, undermined the growth momentum, and the subsequent cooling of Fed rate expectations solidified the correction.
Currently, the market is divided in its outlook: some investors believe a weak October could be the prelude to a powerful rally in November. Others believe the growth cycle is nearing its end. Historical data provides grounds for moderate optimism: over the past 12 years, November has averaged 46% growth for Bitcoin, while Q4 has seen an average of 78%. Even during corrections, such as in 2018 (-42%) and 2022 (-15%), the year-end rally remained significant.
So, for now, Bitcoin is hovering around $110,000, gradually recovering from a local decline. To confirm the upward momentum, buyers need to break resistance around $111,700 and consolidate above $113,000. According to GIS Mining estimates, if a successful breakout occurs, the market could retest the local high of $116,400 and then attempt to break the all-time high of $126,199 from October 6.
Despite the end of the “Red October” period, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. BTC is expected to rise in November. Accumulation of coins by major market participants, the trade agreement between Washington and Beijing, and moderately positive stock market performance are paving the way for a possible recovery in November.
However, the prolonged shutdown—the story has clearly dragged on—and disagreements within the Fed on rates continue to curb risk appetite and leave open the possibility of a retest of the $100,000 level if macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies.
By the end of this year, we maintain our baseline forecast for Bitcoin to reach the $125,000–$130,000 range and then consolidate within it amid significant market volatility.
“Consolidation expected”
Managing Partner of VG Group Vagiz Nurullov
October of this year was a challenging month for crypto traders. Several events simultaneously put significant pressure on the market and could have significantly impacted participants' balances. According to several rumors, some market makers suffered significant losses due to mass liquidations and reduced liquidity. Moreover, some, according to unconfirmed reports, may be on the verge of bankruptcy. However, there is no reliable information yet about which companies were affected and the extent of the losses.
The key event of the month was the flash crash on the night of October 10-11: positions worth approximately $19 billion were liquidated in one day, although actual losses could be significantly higher. The start of the decline coincided with speculation surrounding Donald Trump's announcement of possible new tariffs against China, triggering a chain reaction across the markets.
At the same time, rumors began circulating about a possible vulnerability in the Binance Unified Account Margin system, which uses assets like USDe, wBETH, and BNSOL as collateral. According to some theories, this architecture could have exacerbated the drop in liquidity and intensified the impact of the crash.
Overall, Bitcoin traded in a range between $104,500 and $126,200 in October, gradually stabilizing towards the end of the month.
Historically, November is considered one of the strongest periods for the crypto market: the average BTC return for this month is approximately +42.8%, which is traditionally associated with a seasonal increase in investor interest and recovery from the autumn corrections.
However, the market remains vulnerable. October's events were a stark reminder of the risks of excessive leverage and the dependence of liquidity on the behavior of large participants. Further uncertainty is being created by a possible escalation in Venezuela, which could negatively impact stock markets and, consequently, the price of Bitcoin.
In the short term, consolidation is expected in the $107,000–$113,000 range per BTC. Positive news or an influx of liquidity could push the price to $115,000, while a developing geopolitical crisis, on the contrary, could push the price down to $105,000.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
