XWIN Research: MVRV indicator points to a possible price bottom for Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) has traded in a range of $100,000 to $104,400 over the past 24 hours, reflecting increased risk-off sentiment in global markets. XWIN Research reported that the total crypto market capitalization is approximately $3.46 trillion, with BTC dominance at 60%. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 20, but network data shows Bitcoin's fundamentals are stable.
Experts emphasized that positions worth over $1.7 billion were liquidated in the past 24 hours, primarily in over-encumbered longs. Long-term holders continue to lock in profits, while short-term participants are suffering losses. Meanwhile, BTC stocks on exchanges continue to decline, indicating a shift toward “self-storage.” This process traditionally precedes stabilization and the formation of local lows.
The key indicator is the MVRV ratio, which is currently at 1.8—the lowest since April 2025. This metric reflects the market's approach to investors' average purchase price and historically coincides with accumulation zones. When the MVRV is in the 1.8–2 range, the market typically forms medium-term lows before recovering.
Stablecoin activity confirms the cautious stance of participants. USDT volume remains at around $183 billion, while USDC volume is at $75 billion. Institutional demand for payment solutions remains, but most liquidity remains out of the market pending macroeconomic signals from the US, including employment and trade balance data.
According to experts, despite high volatility and a surge in liquidations, network metrics indicate a gradual rebalancing. Realized losses remain moderate, indicating a deliberate restructuring of positions rather than capitulation. If structural liquidity is maintained and capital continues to flow into BTC through ETFs and corporate wallets, the $99,000–$101,000 zone could become the basis for a further reversal.
Source: cryptonews.net
