Uptober is in full swing: Can Bitcoin (BTC) surpass $200,000 by the end of the year?
Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed $120,000 for the first time in six weeks, driven by weak US jobs data, government shutdowns and rate cut expectations.
October has started strongly, with some analysts predicting a rise to $200,000 by the end of the year. However, one expert believes such a leap is unlikely due to mathematical complexities, time constraints, and market dynamics.
Bitcoin hits 6-week high
According to BeInCrypto Markets, BTC has gained 5.5% since the start of the month, living up to its Uptober reputation. At press time, it was trading at $120,254, up 1.02% over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Dynamics. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
Currently, several signals point to a possible continuation of the rally. One of the key indicators is Pi Cycle Top, which uses simple moving averages over 111 and 350 days to predict peaks. The indicator is still far from signaling a peak, suggesting potential for further growth in BTC.
“Pi Cycle Top is 65% away from the danger zone. Historically, it has predicted tops almost to the day,” the analyst wrote.
The Pi Cycle Indicator:
2 simple moving averages, 1 uncanny record for calling Bitcoin cycle tops.
We're nowhere near the top should history rhyme. pic.twitter.com/iDFFV81Krm
— On-Chain College (@OnChainCollege) October 2, 2025
Could BTC Reach $200,000 in 2025?
Many analysts believe $200,000 is a realistic target. In late August, asset manager Bitwise predicted that BTC would reach that mark by the end of the year.
Other analysts rely on chart patterns and historical analogies to support this goal. Analyst Tech Lead noted that BTC's long-term trend remains within a logarithmic growth channel, and technical signals point to further potential.
“Bitcoin is still on track to reach $200,000 by the end of the year. The mistake many people make is understanding that BTC grows exponentially—the higher the price, the faster the movement. A logarithmic chart is the only way to track this channel. A triple top, an ascending triangle—technical analysis suggests this will break out to the upside,” he said.
Bitcoin Price Prediction. Source: X/techleadhd
Another analyst compared Bitcoin's current trajectory to gold's explosive rise in the 1970s.
Bitcoin and Gold Correlation. Source: X/MikybullCrypto
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin, often referred to as digital gold, is exhibiting similar chart patterns. If this trend continues, the $200,000 target could become a reality in the current cycle.
Bitcoin has crossed $117K, reclaiming the Trader's Realized Price ($116K).
This shift puts BTC back in the BULL phase of the cycle indicator.
From here, Q4 targets expand $160K–$200K. pic.twitter.com/FlYePG6kL9
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 1, 2025
Seasonal factors also add to optimism. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin's average return in the fourth quarter is 79.26%. At current levels around $120,000, even if BTC reaches this average, the price will exceed $215,000.
However, lawyer and Bitcoin proponent Joe Carlasare believes that reaching $200,000 by the end of the year is unlikely. He cited several arguments in support of his position.
Karlasare noted that BTC is $80,000 behind its target, with only 90 days left in the year (approximately 60 trading days on the CME). He emphasized that achieving this target requires an average daily gain of $850, without significant pullbacks or consolidations.
“Bitcoin has rarely maintained such a growth rate for three months, even during its strongest bull runs. Only a few examples exist before 2018,” he noted.
Karlasare noted that as prices rise, increasing market cap requires ever more capital. Therefore, reaching $200,000 will require significant infusions, given sellers willing to sell at prices between $150,000 and $190,000.
Source: cryptonews.net
