Metrics point to a new Bitcoin bull run forming
Following a massive long squeeze that liquidated positions worth over $16 billion, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a challenging week. Bitcoin lost support at $110,000 and fell below $104,000, fueling investor fears amid news of regional bank problems. However, many metrics indicate that selling pressure is easing, and the market may be near a local bottom.
Blogger Coin22 has analyzed Bitcoin's current situation in detail. We'll explain the evidence that suggests BTC may have bottomed out.
The sellers are exhausted
Open interest is a key indicator reflecting speculator activity. It has now reached its 2025 low, which typically signals sellers burning out and a reduction in short-selling pressure. Historically, it is precisely after such phases that the market often begins to recover.
Furthermore, Bitcoin is currently at its most undervalued relative to gold since the FTX crash. While gold and Bitcoin previously moved in sync, the cryptocurrency now appears objectively cheaper.
$20 Billion Short Squeeze Potential
A large volume of short positions has formed in the market. Analysts estimate that a Bitcoin rise of just 3% (to $110,000) could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations totaling up to $20 billion. This, in theory, could quickly return the price above $125,000.
Negative funding rates also indicate that most traders are betting against growth. And if the price starts to move higher, these shorts could fuel a new surge.
Macroeconomic background: uncertainty remains
Political and economic factors continue to influence the market. Donald Trump announced that he will not impose 100% tariffs on China, which has eased geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on an interest rate cut. The meeting is scheduled for October 29.
However, risks still remain: unresolved issues between the US and China, the budget shutdown, and a lack of fresh economic data. All of this is fueling market jitters.
Institutions are taking profits but not exiting the game.
Over the past week, approximately $1.2 billion has been withdrawn from US Bitcoin ETFs, primarily from BlackRock and Fidelity funds. However, experts note that this is simply profit-taking, not a mass exit. Similar volumes could return to the market within just a few days.
Despite the bearish week, interest in ETFs remains, with institutional investors continuing to view them as a long-term instrument.
Bitcoin-to-gold ratio hits historic low
According to analysts, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has now fallen to levels that coincided with global market lows in previous years (2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022). Each time, the cryptocurrency has shown strong growth after these periods.
Meanwhile, gold, which has already risen more than 60% in 2025, appears overheated: an RSI above 70 indicates overbought conditions. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is in oversold territory.
HSBC and JP Morgan believe that gold will continue to rise, but Bitcoin remains an undervalued asset and could reach $165,000 by the end of the year.
Exchange reserves are at a minimum
Unlike previous years, Bitcoin's decline has not been accompanied by mass transfers of coins to exchanges. On the contrary, the number of Bitcoins on exchanges is at a multi-year low, indicating a lack of appetite for selling.
Long-term holders are taking profits – not out of panic, but rationally, strengthening the market.
Retail investors (wallets with 1-1000 BTC) continue to actively buy, while large players have adopted a wait-and-see approach.
This behavior indicates a consolidation phase, not the beginning of a new “crypto winter.”
Market sentiment: cautious optimism
According to a survey of traders and investors, approximately 70% expect Bitcoin to rise to $110,000–$130,000 by the end of October. Another 18% are more optimistic and expect the price to rise above $140,000. Only 12% believe a pullback below $100,000 is possible.
The overall sentiment is moderately bullish: most are confident that current levels are not a peak, but an opportunity for accumulation.
Conclusion: The market is balancing between fear and hope
Bitcoin is currently holding in the $103,000–$110,000 range, remaining just below its 200-day moving average. The RSI is showing severe oversold conditions, and whale activity is declining. All of this points to potential for recovery.
If Bitcoin consolidates above a key support zone and reclaims the 200-day MA in the coming weeks, it will signal the start of a new growth phase.
As Warren Buffett said, the blogger reminded, buy when others are afraid. Now is precisely the moment when patience and a cool head can yield the greatest returns.
Source: cryptonews.net
