Glassnode experts have recorded the capitulation of Bitcoin speculators.
Researchers at the analytical firm Glassnode have suggested a “market reset” given the low values of the NUPL indicator in the context of short-term holders of the first cryptocurrency .
#Bitcoin short-term holder NUPL has rolled into loss territory, signaling stress among recent buyers.
STH capitulation events have historically marked periods of market reset, often laying groundwork for renewed accumulation.
🔗https://t.co/Jz7M1I1b7e pic.twitter.com/PKBlULo8hM— glassnode (@glassnode) September 29, 2025
The indicator fell into “loss zone”, signaling “tension among recent buyers”.
“The capitulation of short-term investors has historically coincided with phases of market reset and has often become the basis for new waves of accumulation,” the experts explained.
Is the correction ending?
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost believes the correction is nearing completion. He observes that when the Fear and Greed Index drops below 35, the market often bottoms out.
We're now approaching extreme Fear, and that's where things start to get interesting
💥 Historically, whenever the Fear & Greed Index dropped below 35, we've been close to a local bottom.
In this cycle, that scenario has played out perfectly every single time.
If we get one… pic.twitter.com/wfpUmXh9D6— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) September 28, 2025
On September 28, the popular market sentiment indicator fell to 37, and shortly before that, to 28. By the time of publication, the metric had recovered to neutral values around 50.
Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index. Source: Alternative.
According to Darkfost, the above scenario has “played out more than once” in the current cycle.
“If there is another decline that results in losses for short-term holders and the index drops below 25, I would not hesitate to increase my Bitcoin position as part of a long-term strategy,” the researcher emphasized.
The analyst also noted that 36% of the digital gold supply from the aforementioned investor group remains in profit:
“The value may seem modest. But in this cycle, every correction has been accompanied by a near-zero loss of STH profits—the figure has consistently fallen below 5%.”
Darkfost added that during such periods, digital gold typically trades below the realized price of short-term holders, which at the time of publication is approximately $112,100.
“This leaves the possibility of a further decline, which could result in almost all of them losing money,” the expert emphasized.
On the other hand, when short-term holders are almost entirely in the black, the market often finds itself close to a local high. This is confirmed by the growth in realized STH profits, the technical analyst noted.
Five stages of market maturation
CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. stated that the market is changing, so one should not expect exact repetitions of past patterns.
Don't expect the market to repeat itself,times change and so does perception.
The market has already gone through five stages:
1. Early wild volatility
2. Double peaks of the young cycle (stepwise distribution)
3. Plateau of a mature bullish impulse
4. Pendulum with shocks… pic.twitter.com/eW4vXWr9cI— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 29, 2025
The expert identified five stages in the evolution of the crypto industry:
- “Wild” volatility of early periods.
- Double peaks of the “young cycle” (gradual distribution).
- Plateau of mature bullish impulse.
- A pendulum with shocks (COVID-19 and the mining ban in China).
- Range compression by institutions (ETF mode).
“Just HODL,” the analyst advised.
As a reminder, 21st Capital experts predicted Bitcoin would rise to $200,000 after breaking through the key resistance level of $130,000.
Source: cryptonews.net
