IBM Claims “Quantum Advantage.” How Real Is the Threat to Bitcoin?
Quantum computers pose a threat to Bitcoin, but experts believe legal attacks from governments are no less dangerous for the cryptocurrency.
The potential threat posed by quantum computers to the security of the Bitcoin blockchain has once again become a focus of the crypto community. Such discussions typically intensify with the release of new chips or announcements of advances in quantum computing.
This time, the occasion was IBM's updated quantum technology development roadmap. According to Forbes, the company plans to achieve “quantum advantage” by 2026 and create fault-tolerant quantum systems by 2029. During the presentation, IBM unveiled the Nighthawk processor, which performs tasks 30% more complex than previous models, as well as the experimental Loon chip, focused on real-time processing.
Against this backdrop, debate has reignited in the professional community about Bitcoin's potential vulnerability to quantum computing. Some analysts warn of a possible loss of the network's cryptographic security, while others consider such concerns exaggerated, although they acknowledge the importance of the topic.
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The previous surge of interest in this issue occurred at the end of 2024, after the presentation of the Willow quantum chip from Google Quantum AI.
A real threat
Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream and one of the most prominent Bitcoin developers, expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a quantum threat materializing in the foreseeable future. He stated that the emergence of computing systems capable of cracking the algorithms used in Bitcoin is unlikely within the next 20 to 40 years.
Back also doesn't rule out the possibility that such computers may never be created. In response to concerns, he pointed to existing quantum-resistant algorithms that could be integrated if necessary. He believes Bitcoin has enough time to implement protective measures long before a real threat emerges.
A contrary position is taken by Capriole Foundation founder Charles Edwards, known for his contributions to the development of on-chain Bitcoin analytics. Responding to analyst Willy Woo, who suggested that the transition to quantum-proof algorithms could take around seven years, Edwards emphasized the need to act now.
“Bitcoin can adapt, but we need much more support on this topic today to reach consensus next year. Bitcoin is the most vulnerable network in the world,” he wrote in X.
Edwards has no doubt about Bitcoin's ability to adapt to the threat posed by quantum technologies, but he believes the issue is already putting pressure on the asset's price. He believes that if a solution isn't found in the next year, gold will continue to outperform Bitcoin, and the quantum threat itself will become a barrier to growth.
Smart contract researcher Gianluca Di Bella is already speaking about the need to prepare for the quantum threat. He believes the industry must proactively transition to quantum-resistant technologies.
Di Bella warns of the risk of delayed attacks: attackers could already be collecting information today that could be decrypted in the future using quantum systems. He admits that commercial quantum computers could appear within 10-15 years, but doesn't rule out the possibility that major players like Google, Microsoft, or Chinese competitors could achieve a technological breakthrough much sooner, and without public announcements.
Some experts don't consider quantum technologies a serious threat at all. For example, renowned cryptographer and one of the authors of the fundamental ideas of decentralized systems, Nick Szabo, believes that the main threat to Bitcoin comes not from technical attacks, but from legal and political pressure from governments and large corporations.
In his opinion, legal risks are much larger and less predictable than technical ones, while the crypto industry often lacks the necessary competencies to counter them.
“To think that Bitcoin, any other cryptocurrency, or blockchain is some magical anarcho-capitalist Swiss Army knife that can withstand any government attack in any legal arena is insane,” Szabo concluded.
Source: cryptonews.net
