Gemini CEO: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is Here to Stay
Saad Ahmed, head of Asia-Pacific at crypto exchange Gemini, stated that Bitcoin's four-year cycle will likely persist in some form. He explained that this cycle is driven primarily by human emotion, not just technical factors.
“The reality is that we're likely to continue to see some form of cycle,” Ahmed told Cointelegraph in an interview at the Token2049 crypto conference in Singapore. He explained the mechanics simply: people get carried away, overestimate their capabilities, then there's a crash, and the market returns to equilibrium.
However, the growing participation of institutional investors in the crypto industry could soften the volatility. “Volatility will smooth out somewhat, but some cycle will still persist, because ultimately it's driven by human emotion,” noted the head of Gemini's division.
The relevance of the four-year cycle for Bitcoin is being actively debated in the crypto community. On August 21, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin's recent price movement may still follow a historical cycle related to the halving.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital went further and provided a specific timeframe. If the patterns of past years repeat, the peak of the current cycle could occur in October—approximately 550 days after the halving, which occurred in April 2024. “We have very little time and room left for price growth,” the analyst warned.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has gained 11.5% over the past week, reaching $123,850. That's just $250 below its all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap.
Skeptics and optimists
Not everyone shares the belief in cyclicality. Matt Hougan of Bitwise said he doesn't expect past patterns to repeat. “I'm betting 2026 will be a strong year. Overall, I think we're in for a few good years,” he said.
October 1st marked the start of the fourth quarter, the strongest quarter for Bitcoin since 2013. According to CoinGlass, the average return for the period was 79.39%.
Source: cryptonews.net
