Conditions for Bitcoin's Growth to $100K-$120K: Institutional Flow Analysis
British institutional services provider Copper believes that Bitcoin's months-long decline is approaching its final stage. In its research note, “Opening Bell,” the company notes that the mechanisms driving the decline have changed.
According to the firm, the early phase of the current decline was characterized by high sensitivity to ETF outflows. Each redemption reliably pushed the price down. However, this correlation has now weakened.
ETF Loss of Influence – A Signal of a Late Downtrend
Copper analysts claim that the 30-day elasticity between ETF flows and asset returns has fallen to one of the lowest levels in a year. This is a sign that the market has largely absorbed the massive sell-off.
“This doesn't confirm a reversal,” Copper commented, “but it does confirm that the simple, flow-driven part of the move is behind us.”
Copper segmented the ETF's asset holdings into so-called “structural zones.” These zones indicate where the Bitcoin price tends to stabilize based on institutional ownership levels. Analysts find these levels remarkably consistent:
- $40K–$60K: anchored by low ETF ownership.
- $70K–$90K: Average savings level.
- $100K–$120K: Upper structural level (plateau).
According to Copper, these ranges are not random. They function as step-like price shelves, through which Bitcoin rises as ETF demand grows.
The market is absorbing ETF sales.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $86,000. Copper notes that the total Bitcoin holdings in ETFs are concentrated at the upper end of the historical range traditionally associated with the $100,000–$120,000 price zone.
The key factor is Bitcoin's performance within these price brackets. When ETFs first move Bitcoin into a new holding zone, the following ten days historically see a 10-13% increase. The market adapts to the new level of institutional demand. However, once ETF inflows stabilize, returns level off.
“When ETFs first enter a new holding zone, the next ten days historically see strong upward movement, averaging 10-13%. Once the zone is fully occupied, returns smooth out to 1-2%. At the highest zone, which we are in now, the average ten-day return even becomes slightly negative.”
This explains why Bitcoin sometimes rises even with negative ETF outflows—the gains are absorbed. But without sustained inflows, the market cannot form a new uptrend.
Analysts believe the market is in the final stages of a downtrend. A return to the $100,000–$120,000 range depends on a significant shift in ETF flows: either a pullback to lower territory for a short-term rally or strong accumulation to initiate a breakout.
“Until ETFs return to lower territory or break higher with sustained inflows, the market will likely move mostly sideways with a slight downward bias. We are in the late phase of a downtrend, but not yet in the early phase of a new uptrend,” the analysts conclude.
Coinbase sees positive structural shifts in Europe
While short-term market signals remain mixed, the broader European institutional landscape suggests positive developments.
Keith Grose, the new CEO of Coinbase UK, notes a structural shift in the way regulated institutions approach digital assets in the region. One example is the Czech National Bank's recent decision to test a limited portfolio of digital assets. This is one of the first supervised pilot projects among European Union central banks.
Grose believes such steps are important.
“Market conditions are changing as institutions across Europe adopt a more structured and regulated approach to digital assets. We are seeing clearer frameworks, more robust infrastructure, and the first examples of supervised pilot projects by central banks,” he emphasized.
He adds that while the public may not yet be aware of this shift, Europe is quietly laying the foundation. This foundation will allow digital assets to become a significant part of the future financial and payments infrastructure.
Source: cryptonews.net
