Bitcoin tested the $100,000 level after the release of weak US employment data.
Bitcoin fell to $100,300 on November 6, losing 2.5% in a day along with U.S. stocks amid disappointing macroeconomic data. The leading cryptocurrency is trading around $101,924, following the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, which also fell.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Binance
Markets were pressured by data showing record job losses and rising household debt in the US. A report from recruiting agency Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed more than 153,000 job cuts in October—the most since 2003.
Record job losses weigh on markets
“The pace of layoffs in October was significantly higher than the average for the month,” commented Chief Revenue Officer Andy Challenger. This data is particularly painful given the US government shutdown, which has prevented official employment statistics from being available.
Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter suggested that the economy “may need more” interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. “A new era of monetary policy has arrived,” they declared on the social media site X, commenting on the Fed's easing of financial conditions.
Uncertainty surrounds the Fed's December meeting
However, trading firm QCP Capital warned that a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting—a key driver for cryptocurrencies and risk assets—is not guaranteed.
“Markets are currently pricing the likelihood of such a move at 60-65%, but the longer the data blackout lasts, the more comfortable regulators may feel with the pause, which in turn supports the dollar and tightens credit conditions,” the company said in its latest report.
Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows a 69% chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut in December.
Institutional investors are leaving the market
QCP Capital emphasized that a return of institutional buying is necessary for Bitcoin to achieve a sustainable reversal from multi-month lows. American spot Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of nearly $900 million in the first three days of the week.
“The psychological $100,000 level now represents a key line of defense, and any stabilization of capital flows into ETFs could quickly change sentiment unless new macroeconomic shocks emerge,” the analysts concluded.
Traders were forecasting a drop below $100,000 for Bitcoin this week, with a possible day being considered to fill the open gap in Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures around $92,000.
JPMorgan changes its stance on Bitcoin
A positive signal came from JPMorgan, whose analysts described Bitcoin as a more attractive asset compared to gold after its recent decline. “While Bitcoin was overvalued by $36,000 relative to gold at the end of last year, it is now undervalued by approximately $68,000,” wrote lead analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in the bank's report.
Current macroeconomic conditions create a challenging outlook for risky assets, with Bitcoin balancing institutional interest and pressure from traditional markets. JPMorgan's position could be a catalyst for reconsidering investment strategies for cryptocurrencies.
Source: cryptonews.net
