Bitcoin surpassed $120,000 amid liquidity from the exchange shutdown and ETF inflows, bolstering year-end forecasts of $200,000.
- Bitcoin ETFs raised $676 million; Ethereum ETFs added $80 million.
- The government shutdown has put the SEC on hold, pushing investors toward existing crypto ETFs.
- Analysts predict Bitcoin's price will rise in the fourth quarter and will grow by $160,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year.
According to analysts, Bitcoin is showing signs of approaching the $180,000 mark, believing the current market structure is repeating a rare situation. This comes as Bitcoin closes one of its largest quarterly candlesticks ever, fueled by strong ETF inflows, a surge in cryptocurrency liquidity following the US government shutdown, and a sharp rise in gold prices.
At the time of writing, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization was $4.15 trillion, up 1.74% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $120,327, up 1.29% on the day and up nearly 10% over the past week. BTC has fluctuated between $118,383 and $121,086, remaining approximately 3.5% below its all-time high of $124,457 reached in August 2025.
The government shutdown has become an unexpected catalyst for cryptocurrency growth.
The ongoing US government shutdown has frozen the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), halting approvals for new ETFs and regulatory filings. This leaves investors with two primary options for investing in cryptocurrency: existing Bitcoin and Ethereum-based ETFs.
On October 1, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $676 million in net inflows, marking the third consecutive day of inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs saw $80.79 million in net inflows, also extending their streak to three consecutive days.https://t.co/Hj2Gs49bWa pic.twitter.com/qb0n59xwS3
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 2, 2025
On October 1 alone, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $676 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs added another $80 million. BlackRock's IBIT fund once again surpassed $90 billion in assets, placing it among the top 20 largest ETFs in the US.
Related: September's Scars Are Fading: Are XRP and ETH's Fibonacci Levels Pointing to Unexplored Highs?
Do shutdowns help or harm Bitcoin?
During previous market downturns, Bitcoin often rose before sharply correcting. For example, it fell 23% after its surge in 2018 and 18% after its rally in 2019. However, the market structure is different today. Bitcoin has already surpassed $120,000, fueled by institutional investment inflows that were absent in previous cycles.
Historically, government shutdowns last about eight days, with the S&P 500 index rising a year later in 86% of cases. After the shutdown ends, deferred spending, federal payroll arrears, and contracts return to the economy. This renewed liquidity, coupled with lower rates, often supports risky assets.
Signals in the chain: whales continue to buy
Network signals confirm the optimistic forecast. Demand has been growing by more than 62,000 bitcoins per month since July, while whale holdings are rapidly growing.
Bitcoin hits a fresh milestone!
Addresses that kept stacking #BTC without selling now hold a record 298,000 BTC.
Diamond hands are stronger than ever. pic.twitter.com/obKgHYc20g
— NekoZ (@NekozTek) October 2, 2025
Cumulative wallets, which buy but rarely sell, now hold a record 298,000 bitcoins. Tether also added $1 billion worth of bitcoin to its reserves, while simultaneously issuing over $10 billion in new USDT over the past two months.
Bitcoin Price Forecast for Q4: $160,000 to $200,000
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could be on track for a strong fourth quarter. Every “green” September in Bitcoin's history has been accompanied by an average gain of over 50% in the fourth quarter. The analyst sees a path to $160,000–$200,000 by the end of the year.
Related: Cryptocurrency market capitalization has once again surpassed $4 trillion, with traders asking whether this signals the start of an altcoin rally.
Source: cryptonews.net
