Red November
After reaching a new all-time high last month, Bitcoin's price began to decline sharply, falling by a quarter by mid-November, returning to its level at the beginning of the year. This was primarily due to the massive sell-off of the asset by large investors who acquired it several years ago at a low price. Further pressure is being exerted by concerns about a slowdown in the pace of key interest rate cuts in the US, making risky assets less attractive. Despite the current weakness, the asset has a chance of recovery in the future.
After Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,200 on October 6, the currency began to rapidly lose value, falling below $94,300/BTC by November 14. In the following days, the price managed to consolidate just below $95,000/BTC, almost a quarter lower than its October peak. This pushed Bitcoin prices back to levels seen in early 2025.
The first major currency collapse occurred on October 10, after US President Donald Trump announced on the social media platform TruthSocial that he intended to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports due to Beijing's “aggressive” trade policies (see Kommersant, October 13). Despite expert predictions, Bitcoin failed to recover and resume its strong growth. Moreover, the president's words had a devastating impact on the entire crypto market: Ethereum's price also dropped to its early-year levels, and some currencies, such as Solana, despite their September gains, plummeted below their January levels.
Despite record growth rates in the second and third quarters, after such a massive collapse, Bitcoin looks like a very weak currency, experts say.
According to Investing.com, the NASDAQ 100 index has risen 15% since January of this year, while the spot price of gold has risen 35% and silver has risen 44%. “Bitcoin is a reliable currency in the crypto market, but not the most reliable asset in the world,” notes independent digital technology expert Roman Nekrasov.
At the same time, the Bitcoin exchange rate is primarily under pressure from sales by investors who purchased the currency in 2022, when the BTC exchange rate was around $16,000. “Over the past few months, major players have sold approximately $100 billion worth of Bitcoin—that's about 1 million Bitcoins,” notes Rufat Abyasov, founder and chief investment officer of GBIG Holdings.
At the same time, a significant portion of “old” investors are selling Bitcoin based on the classic four-year halving cycle, which is based on Bitcoin's emission, experts note. The fourth halving ended last April, and the next one won't happen until 2028. “The market is in a bearish phase,” EKMO noted.
Fundamental factors holding back cryptocurrency growth include investor concerns about future monetary policy in the US, notes Rafael Polansky, Director of Development at BitMEX. The last time the Fed's interest rate was adjusted was in September and October of this year, but each time the cut was 25 basis points—less than investors expected, experts note. “If the pace of rate cuts is slower than investors expected, risky assets will lose their appeal,” concludes Polansky.
According to Mr. Abyasov, if the Bitcoin price fails to hold at the beginning of the year, a collapse even lower than the March lows—as low as $75,000 per Bitcoin—can be expected. The US government's purchase of the currency to partially pay off its domestic debt is also contributing to Bitcoin's price support, notes Andrey Podolyan, chief analyst at Cryptorg.
While it's too early to talk about Bitcoin's prospects for stabilization, analysts believe the currency has a chance to resume growth and even set new records. Given that the US intends to continue cutting rates in 2026, and the country's economy may require additional growth stimulus tools, “Bitcoin will likely continue to rise next year,” notes Mr. Polansky. However, sustained growth will require more significant macroeconomic factors, primarily signals of a significant Fed rate cut.
Source: cryptonews.net
