Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Why is Bitcoin Falling?

• Bitcoin price is hovering at $112,967 today after breaking through key support levels of $114,500–$115,000.
• Supply chain data shows $92.7 million in cash outflows and weak SOPR, indicating declining profitability and selling pressure.
• Market liquidations exceeded $400 million as BTC tests the $112,000 liquidity zone, raising the risk of a deeper correction.

Bitcoin is trading at $112,967 today, down after failing to defend the $114,500–$115,000 zone. Sellers pushed the price toward $112,000, where large liquidity bids were concentrated, according to CoinGlass data. This breakout has raised concerns that the bullish cycle may be stalling, despite recent macroeconomic factors.

Bitcoin price fell below exponential moving averages

Key Technical Levels for BTC Price (Source: Tradingview)

The 4-hour chart shows declining key moving averages as BTC has fallen from its September high near $117,800. The 20-day EMA has crossed the 50-day EMA and is approaching the 100-day EMA, signaling strengthening bearish momentum. Support near $112,000 coincides with liquidity levels, where $400 million in bids were concentrated between $111,500 and $110,000.

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Momentum remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, close to oversold territory, but shows no signs of a bullish reversal. Traders warn that a failure to hold above $112,000 could open a broader range toward $110,000 and $108,500. On the other hand, BTC must break above $114,800 and $116,000 to regain buyer control.

On-chain flows confirm bearish sentiment

BTC Chain Analysis (Source: Coinglass)

Currency flows highlight the selling pressure. Data for September 23 shows a net capital outflow from spot exchanges of $92.7 million, indicating an outflow from centralized venues. While this significant outflow is sometimes interpreted as accumulation, the overall trend since mid-September reflects a sustained selloff.

At the same time, Bitcoin's share-to-profit ratio (SOPR) has declined, suggesting that coins spent on the network are increasingly being sold at a loss or with diminishing returns. This decline in profitability highlights the risk that the rally could peter out.

Market liquidations are intensifying

The sudden decline liquidated more than 402,000 traders in a single day, with total nominal losses exceeding $400 million. A heat map of Bitcoin liquidations confirms that the price action was focused on dense liquidity clusters around $112,000, suggesting the decline was partly driven by planned stop-losses.

Derivatives data also points to a weakening market structure. Open interest in futures has fallen sharply since last week's peak, and the taker-to-seller ratio is -0.79, reflecting increased selling. Historically, such figures precede multi-week corrections similar to the January-April decline earlier this year.

Analysts warn of cycle exhaustion

Macroeconomic catalysts failed to maintain momentum. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, which was expected to support risky assets, failed to lead to sustained growth. João Vedson, founder of Alphartal, argues that Bitcoin is showing “clear signs of cycle exhaustion”: the Sharpe ratio is lower than it will be in 2024, and the risk-return profile is less attractive for institutional investors.

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Against this backdrop, debate has raged over whether the bull market is ending. Some analysts note that altcoins could attract more attention if Bitcoin's profitability remains low even with higher valuations.

However, not all voices are optimistic. Veteran investor Gary Cardone recently stated that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within two years, arguing that the asset will “break all the models.” While long-term optimism remains strong, short-term signals suggest caution.

🇺🇸 INVESTING LEGEND GARY CARDONE SAID #BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE TO $1 MILLION IN 2 YEARS

“IT WILL BREAK ALL THE MODELS” 🚀 pic.twitter.com/9Edq8MS5D9

— Vivek Sen (@Vivek4real_) September 23, 2025

Bitcoin Price Technical Forecast

The near-term Bitcoin price forecast is based on whether support at $112,000 can hold. Below this level, the next downside targets are $111,000 and $109,000, where the trendline and liquidity confluence provide protection. A break could open the door to upside risks to $107,000.

On the other hand, resistance lies at $114,800 and then at $116,000. A close above these levels will reverse the short-term momentum and renew optimistic growth prospects to $118,000 and beyond. Until then, the technical structure suggests consolidation with downside risk.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Rise in Price?

Today's Bitcoin price reflects a market caught between intense selling pressure and long-term optimistic forecasts. On-chain indicators and derivatives positions indicate fading confidence, while the decline caused by a liquidity shortage continues to weigh on sentiment.

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If buyers hold onto $112,000 and spot flows stabilize, a recovery to $116,000 is possible. Otherwise, downside risks remain, and analysts warn that the bullish cycle may be on pause. For now, Bitcoin's trajectory will be determined by whether the liquidity losses translate into a deeper correction or trigger a rebound from a key support level.

Source: cryptonews.net