10x Research: Strategy Moves from Capitulation to Catalyst Phase

Analyst firm 10x Research has published a review of Strategy (MSTR) shares, noting that market participants mistakenly wrote off the company after the premium to NAV fell by $18 billion. According to the researchers, the capitulation phase has already ended, and current dynamics point to a transition to the catalyst stage.

Strategy shares were previously considered a “dead bet” on Bitcoin following a collapse in speculative interest and a decline in the premium to net assets. However, as analysts emphasize, the company hasn't collapsed—it's merely rebooted. Retail investors have fled the market, excess leverage has been eliminated, and fears of overvaluation have disappeared.

10x Research experts point out that Strategy is now in a position similar to the end of 2024, when shares were trading at $177, but in a more sustainable form—without speculative pressure. If the stock is included in the S&P 500 index, forced purchases could lead to billions of dollars injected into the limited-supply securities.

The report states that the current price rise is not due to hopes or rumors, but is driven by market mechanics. Supply depletion, coupled with potential catalysts, could lead to a sharp reversal. According to the researchers, this is a “structural liquidity event.”

10x Research warned that most market participants see only two stages—hype or collapse—ignoring the absorption phase. Experts estimate that Strategy is currently in this phase: the market has been cleared of speculators, leaving only disciplined investors waiting for a specific trigger. The current stock price reflects the classic market cycle: decline, clearing, catalyst, and rise.

Source: cryptonews.net