Bitcoin analyst: BTC “could fall below $50,000”
- According to the theory of four-year cycles, Bitcoin could be just one month away from a bear market. Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of the crypto analysis platform Alphractal, recently explained this on X. According to the theory, Bitcoin could skyrocket to over $140,000 in the coming weeks and then reach its cycle peak in October.
- However, Wedson admits that this cycle is significantly different from previous cycles thanks to the presence of large institutional investors and the adoption of Bitcoin by the traditional financial system: “The real question is whether this fractal will remain reliable given the massive speculation in ETFs and growing institutional demand.”
- The analyst is curious to see “whether the new wave of crypto enthusiasts is right in their claim that the four-year cycle is over and Bitcoin will now rise indefinitely.” Alternatively, 2025 could be “the last gasp before a sharp correction.” In the ensuing bear market, he predicts, BTC could fall below $50,000 in 2026.
- For several months now, rumors have been circulating about a possible end to the four-year cycle. The main driver is the diminishing importance of the halving block reward with each halving. The adoption of BTC as a reserve asset by both governments and companies, regulatory easing in the US, and ever-improving market access further strengthen this theory.
- Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm Crypto Quant, also recently declared, “The Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.” According to Ju, the previous pattern, in which large investors accumulate during bear markets and sell during bull markets, has been replaced by long-term holding strategies of institutional players.
- In this analysis, you can read what role the halving in 2025 will still play and what current factors say about the Bitcoin price in the coming months: Why the Bitcoin cycle no longer works – and what that means for investors.
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source
- Joao Wedson | X
