Is Polymarket falsifying its trading volume?

• A significant portion of the trading volume on the popular betting platform Polymarket consists of artificially inflated transactions, according to a recent study by Columbia University.
• Researchers examined all trading data between November 2022 and October 2025. In doing so, they identified recurring trading patterns between wallets that barely interacted with other market participants.
• According to the report, an average of around 25 percent of all transactions on Polymarket during the investigation period were attributable to wash trading.
• Overall, the authors classified 14 percent of the 1.26 million wallets examined as suspicious. Betting on sporting events was particularly affected, accounting for 45 percent, followed by election betting at 17 percent. Bets on political events showed suspicious activity in 12 percent of cases, and around 3 percent of cryptocurrencies.
• The scientists attribute the increasing frequency of such events to several structural factors:
• Polymarket currently charges no transaction fees, requires no KYC verification, and allows trading via any number of pseudonymous wallets. These conditions encourage artificial volume increases.
• Furthermore, the authors suspect that many users were motivated by so-called airdrop farming strategies – that is, by the expectation of profiting from future token distributions with high trading volumes.
• According to the investigation, there is no evidence that Polymarket itself was involved in the manipulations. A spokesperson told Bloomberg that they are reviewing the study's findings.
• Allegations of wash trading against Polymarket had already surfaced in November of last year.
• Wash trading is considered market manipulation in the US and is prohibited on regulated trading platforms. Following a legal dispute with the US regulator CFTC, Polymarket had to leave the US in 2022. The platform is currently working on a return.
• Polymarket recently made headlines with an investment from the Intercontinental Exchange. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) invested $2 billion in the betting platform.

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Eine Quelle: btc-echo.de