[Prompt: Please rewrite the following text while preserving the HTML tags exactly as they are. Focus on rephrasing sentences and using synonyms to enhance the uniqueness of the content without changing the original meaning or adding new information. Ensure the core message and ideas remain intact, and do not alter the structure or purpose of the post.]: Coinbase Revenue, Trading Prospects Hurt by Tariff Tensions: Oppenheimer
The analyst suggests that a decline in retail trading caused by tariff concerns will hold back Coinbase's revenue growth through 2025.
Author: Helen Brown | Edited by: Sheldon Reback Updated: April 16, 2025, 5:30 PM Published: April 16, 2025, 2:49 PM
What you need to know:
- Oppenheimer cut his estimate for Coinbase's trading volume in 2025 from $1.6 trillion to $1.3 trillion.
- Analysts attribute recession fears stemming from President Trump's volatile tariff policies to the underlying causes of the retail decline.
- Coinbase's market share has grown to 69% of U.S. cryptocurrency spot trading, but macroeconomic uncertainty is clouding growth prospects.
In a report, Oppenheimer analysts note that cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) is facing a deteriorating outlook as uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's repeated threats of tariffs weighs on retail cryptocurrency trading activity.
The investment bank cut its full-year trading volume forecast by 19% to $1.3 trillion and its first-quarter estimate to $380 billion, down 13% from the previous quarter, as risk appetite weakened.
Despite the overall more positive mood in Washington — as well as pro-crypto signals from the White House, Congress and regulators — analysts say the market has not fully embraced the shift.
“Since the election, we have seen the most pro-crypto statements from the president, administration, Congress, regulators, and executive orders that were meant to signal to the world that the U.S. is open to blockchain businesses to attract capital, projects, and talent,” analyst Owen Lau said. “While the public believed in such a seamless move, it is sad to see Trump’s on-and-off tariffs cause bear market anxiety, recession fears, and a retail reversal.”
Coinbase shares have fallen 30% this year, lagging behind Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500, which are down 10% and 8%, respectively. While those numbers represent an improvement over the 2022 downturn, when COIN fell 86%, they still highlight the platform’s sensitivity to broader macro signals.
Oppenheimer also revised down its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 and lowered its price target on the stock to $279 from $388, saying retailer participation could remain subdued amid political uncertainty. It has an outperform rating on the stock, which fell 1.2% to $173.39 on Wednesday.
One positive: market share. Coinbase accounted for 69% of U.S. spot cryptocurrency trading volume in February, putting it ahead of rivals like Robinhood (HOOD). Maintaining that lead will depend on the market’s ability to shake off tariff woes and regain momentum.
Oppenheimer said that despite the short-term challenges, he remains optimistic about Coinbase's long-term potential.
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