Bitcoin's True Capitulation Zone Is $65K, Says Prominent Analyst
James Chek believes that this level reflects the average cost of investments, and he predicts that the $50,000 level will provide reliable long-term support.
James Van Straten | Edited by Stephen Alpher Updated April 16, 2025, 5:13 PM Published April 16, 2025, 2:47 PM
What to consider:
- Analyst James Check believes that long-term holders could face unrealized losses if Bitcoin falls to the “market average” of $65,000.
- Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap — a price of around $50,000 — should provide significant support.
Where is the bottom for Bitcoin (BTC)?
While acknowledging the possibility of reaching this level, blockchain analyst James Check suggested that the real bottom could only be reached once Bitcoin experiences a true capitulation.
That would likely require a reduction to $65,000, which he called the “true market average,” or the average cost base for active investors, Chek said.
At this point, according to Check, speaking on the TFTC podcast, the average investor could start to feel the pressure of unrealized losses. Even long-term holders, including those who have held Bitcoin for five years, could find themselves in the red. Interestingly, this price level is closely aligned with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which has a similar base price of around $67,500.
Where will market capitulation lead?
While Chek predicts a significant drop from $65,000, he sees solid support in the $49,000-$50,000 range, prices that are in line with the 2024 launch of an ETF and Bitcoin’s $1 trillion market cap. A drop to $40,000 looks unlikely, he says, barring a global recession.
The check also noted a long period of “stagnation” in 2024, where Bitcoin traded in a wide range between $50,000 and $70,000 for several months, creating a solid support base.
