CME Bitcoin Futures Spread Narrows to $490, Reversing 'Trump's BTC Rush
The market likely no longer believes that a crypto-friendly president is good for the industry and is now driven by macro correlations.
Omkar Godbole | Edited by Parikshit Mishra , 12 Mar 2025 07:05 UTC
Key points:
- The optimistic sentiment in the Bitcoin market following Donald Trump's election victory has faded, as seen by the narrowing spread between next-month and near-month BTC futures on the CME.
- The market probably no longer believes that a crypto president is good for the industry and is now driven by macro correlations.
- The CME futures curve remains in contango.
The bullish sentiment seen after Donald Trump's victory in the November 5 presidential election has completely disappeared, according to an indicator linked to CME Bitcoin (BTC) futures.
The indicator in question is the spread between the “continuous” next month and the standard front-month BTC futures, which are traded on the world’s largest derivatives platform. A continuous contract is a calculated representation of a sequence of expiring futures contracts, allowing for the creation of a continuous historical data series for analysis.
The spread narrowed to $495, the lowest since Nov. 5, after peaking at $1,705 on Dec. 17, according to TradingView data. In other words, it reversed Trump's rally, indicating that bullish sentiment in the market is waning.
“The narrowing spread between CME bitcoin futures with front-month and next-month futures may indicate that traders are lowering their price expectations,” Tomas Erdosi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk.
Trump's waning influence likely indicates that the market no longer believes that a pro-crypto president in the White House is good for the industry, and macroeconomic correlations are once again taking over.
“We note that the basis of the contract ahead of the deadline has fallen significantly since the beginning of March, which confirms the moderate short-term
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