Bitcoin Price: Will It Fall Below $90,000?

On Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) prices fell to $94,000. This move renewed concerns about further liquidation and a potential yearly low of $76,000. Selling pressure on the asset increased significantly after the price broke the 365-day moving average, a key support level for the current bullish cycle.

The breakout of this technical level has revived discussions about the possibility of a larger correction. Furthermore, early signs of tension are being observed at key on-chain asset price levels.

Key technical and on-chain factors driving the decline

The 365-day moving average, currently near $102,000, has acted as Bitcoin's main structural bottom since late 2023.

Bitcoin's failure to reclaim it this week echoes the pattern seen in December 2021, when repeated failures at this level marked the start of the 2022 bear market.

However, the broader market context suggests a mid-cycle reset rather than a full-blown macro top. Liquidity conditions remain volatile, ETF flows have turned negative, and long-term holders are distributing funds at the fastest pace since early 2024.

Despite this, the loss in the 365-day moving average remains significant.

Good day to remember this.
Once Bitcoin breaks below the 365-day MA, its pretty difficult to recover. Judging by the data of how previous bear markets started, I would say we are in one.

It would take a complete turnaround of demand, sentiment, capital flows to revert the… https://t.co/IsUlwqAbq0

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) November 14, 2025

Historically, staying below this line for several weekly closes triggers deeper retracements. A sustained breakout increases the likelihood of a move below $90,000.

On-chain data confirms this risk. The strike price for Bitcoin holders who entered the market 6-12 months ago is around $94,600.

This group has accumulated significant wealth during ETF-driven rallies, and their underlying value often acts as the first capitulation zone in bull markets.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below that threshold on Friday, leaving many of those holders with unrealized losses.

Those who entered Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago have a cost basis near 94K.

Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions. pic.twitter.com/i9a5M0xnMW

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 14, 2025

Similar breakouts occurred in both 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. Each of these periods saw a prolonged decline after the price fell below its 6-12-month price range.

This trend indicates increasing pressure on recent buyers and increases the likelihood of a deeper sell-off.

Long-term cycle data provides additional context. Bitcoin bullish cycles exhibit recurring mid-cycle corrections of 25% to 40%.

Using the 2025 peak of $125,000 as a benchmark, a typical pullback would see Bitcoin fall to $75,000-$93,000. These drawdown levels align well with current technical and on-chain levels.

I see stories about “old whales dumping bitcoin”, but the data does not support those stories.

Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual. pic.twitter.com/w2aHjJ3XmD

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 12, 2025

As a result, analysts see the formation of three main zones.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch

The first support level is at $92,000–$95,000 , which corresponds to the 6-12 month price level and recent ETF inflows. This area will likely become the first reaction point.

However, a stronger correction could take Bitcoin into the $85,000 to $90,000 range, which is in line with the standard 25-30% mid-cycle decline.

The bearish scenario extends deeper. If ETF outflows accelerate and macroeconomic conditions worsen, Bitcoin could retest the $75,000 to $82,000 zone .

This would represent a 35-40% decline from the cycle high and would be consistent with previous mid-cycle price drops. A drop below $70,000 remains unlikely without a significant liquidity shock.

Despite recent weakness, Bitcoin has shown neither a burst top nor a structural exhaustion pattern. This suggests that the current moves are part of a broader consolidation within the bull market, rather than the beginning of a new multi-year downtrend.

At this point, Bitcoin's ability to reclaim the 365-day moving average will determine the depth of the correction.

A quick recovery will ease selling pressure and reduce the likelihood of a move below $90,000.

However, further rejection increases the likelihood of a deeper test of mid-cycle support zones.

The post Bitcoin Price: Will It Fall Below $90,000 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source: cryptonews.net