Why Major Companies Are Changing Their Bitcoin Forecasts
Bitcoin's price dynamics in recent weeks and broader cryptocurrency market trends have forced some leading cryptocurrency firms to revise their forecasts downwards. Their targets have often served as benchmarks, cited in the media and on social media. However, despite Bitcoin's decline to $100,000 in early November, experts see potential for continued price growth, albeit at a slower pace, according to RBC Crypto.
The forecast changes occurred amid two major declines over the past month. On October 10-11, a cascade of liquidations occurred on crypto exchanges, resulting in traders losing over $19 billion. And on November 5, the Bitcoin (BTC) price fell below $100,000 for the first time since June. Furthermore, Bitcoin was the only one among the world's top ten assets to show negative momentum since the beginning of October.
As of November 7 at 10:00 Moscow time, the price of the main cryptocurrency is around $102,000, which is approximately 20% lower than the historical maximum of $126.2 thousand reached on October 6.
One of the most radical revisions to Bitcoin's target price came from investment firm Galaxy, which lowered its forecast to $120,000 by the end of 2025 from its previous $185,000. This estimate was made by the firm's head of research, Alex Thorne, due to capital outflows to other markets, particularly gold and artificial intelligence.
Thorne also emphasized the importance of maintaining the Bitcoin price above $100,000, which would indicate the continuation of the bullish market structure. Thorne attributed the crypto market's weakness to large sales of Bitcoin by long-standing holders and a decline in activity by crypto-backed companies (Strategy and similar companies).
The mass launch of such companies with crypto reserves was expected in 2025. However, in recent weeks, several of them have already sold their previously accumulated cryptocurrency to buy back their own shares or reduce their corporate debt.
Galaxy Digital (GLXY), an investment firm founded in 2018 by billionaire Mike Novogratz, holds 6,894 BTC, which at the current market value is valued at nearly $700 million.
Stablecoins
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood offered a rather unusual reason for revising her forecast, lowering her long-term Bitcoin price forecast by $300,000 (to $1.2 million) by 2030 from her bullish $1.5 million estimate. Wood noted the growth of the stablecoin market, which is scaling faster than expected, especially in emerging markets, where they now serve as digital dollars for payments and savings—precisely the functions she previously believed Bitcoin could fulfill.
“The function of a safe-haven asset to hedge capital valuations in emerging markets” is one of the six main sources of capital inflows into the Bitcoin market, according to ARK Invest's forecasting methodology. Therefore, the leading cryptocurrency has other markets from which funds can flow. And Wood still considers Bitcoin “digital gold” and a fundamental element of the new global monetary system.
ARK predicted Bitcoin would reach $2.4 million by 2030. Why this prediction? ARK Invest manages exchange-traded funds (ETFs), some of which buy shares of crypto companies and funds, as well as one of the largest spot Bitcoin ETFs—the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, with $4.3 billion in Bitcoin as of November 7, according to Sosovalue. The company's CEO, Cathie Wood, has been predicting the price of one Bitcoin to exceed $1 million by 2030 for several years.
ARK isn't alone in discussing the flow of liquidity into stablecoins and the overall liquidity problems in the crypto market. In a recent report, market maker Wintermute pointed to the stablecoin market's near-unique growth in 2025 relative to other sectors.
Stablecoin market capitalization has grown by approximately 50% since the beginning of the year, or an additional $100 billion. Meanwhile, market sectors such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and cryptocurrency holding companies have stagnated. Inflows into ETFs have stalled since the summer, with total capital under management hovering around $150 billion. “Once-popular cryptocurrency holding companies have gone quiet,” the report states.
Gold vs. Bitcoin
Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predict Bitcoin's price will rise to $170,000 in the next 6-12 months, according to Cointelegraph, citing a bank report. This conclusion is based on a study of BTC's correlation with the price of gold and volatility calculations.
Back in May, investment bank experts expected Bitcoin to outperform gold in returns in the second half of 2025. However, as of November 7, BTC's year-to-date returns lag behind gold by more than six times—8% for the cryptocurrency versus 52% for the precious metal.
JPMorgan is no longer citing Bitcoin's superiority over gold, but notes that gold's volatility in October made it less attractive to investors. In October, gold rose from $3,900 to a record high of nearly $4,400, followed by a pullback to $4,000 by November 7, according to Tradingview. This volatility, experts believe, made gold a riskier asset.
At the same time, Bitcoin, on the contrary, has become more stable, making it look more attractive. According to JPMorgan calculations, Bitcoin's current market capitalization of approximately $2.1 trillion could grow by 67%. This means the price of one coin could rise to $170,000.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
