Bitcoin's Old Cycle Has Ended. Data Points to Last Window for New Top
- The data shows that Bitcoin's all-time high was reached on day 481, a full 68 days earlier than the last cycle.
- The established theory of Bitcoin's lengthening cycles has been shattered by the influence of spot ETFs.
- The final window for a potential new record is now open from September 27 to October 21, 2025.
Bitcoin's latest cycle has sparked heated debate over whether the peak came earlier than expected. New data shows that the cryptocurrency hit an all-time high of $124,128 on August 14, 2025, exactly 481 days after the halving in April 2024.
This figure is striking because it perfectly reflects the historical average of previous cycle peaks. If this date is confirmed as the peak, it would represent a significant break from recent history: Bitcoin would peak 68 days earlier than expected in 2021.
How does this cycle violate historical law?
Bitcoin’s halvings invariably set the pace of its market cycles. After the first halving in 2012, it took the asset 368 days to reach its cyclical maximum. The next cycle was longer, with the peak in 2017 occurring 525 days after the second halving.
The cycle following the 2020 halving lasted even longer, setting a record after 549 days. This set a clear trend of market durations lengthening as cryptocurrency adoption increases. The 2025 peak, which coincided exactly with the average duration of 481 days, directly challenges this established pattern.
What caused this cycle to accelerate?
Unlike all previous cycles, Bitcoin set a new all-time high before the supply halving in April 2024. On March 14, 2024, the price reached $73,581, an unprecedented rally driven by the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US.
Previously, old highs were only retraced months after the halving. However, the 2024 rally completely disrupted this rhythm, showing how powerful institutional demand has become in influencing market structure. This topic has been discussed in discussions about Bitcoin preparing for a pullback before the halving – Crypto Analyst.
What are the next key dates to watch?
If the August 2025 high turns out to be the top, this cycle will be the second-fastest halving-to-ATH cycle in history. However, if the current price consolidation is just a temporary phase, new highs are still possible.
Based on 2017 and 2021 data, the last window for a new ATH is now between September 27 and October 21, 2025. During this period, traders will be watching for a rebound similar to what was expected after Bitcoin's pre-halving crash: Crypto.com CEO expects a rebound in 6 months.
Source: cryptonews.net
