XRP's rally may be over. $3 is the barrier bulls need to clear: Technical analysis

XRP price struggles to gain momentum amid SEC news, with key indicators signaling a bearish trend change.

Posted by: Omkar Godbole | Edited by: Shaurya Malwa Updated: March 25, 2025 12:59 UTC Published: March 25, 2025 11:21 UTC

What you need to know:

• XRP rose more than 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday on the back of the SEC news. Since then, activity has been muted, with prices hovering in the $2.30-$2.50 range.
• The shift from a bullish to a bearish trend is indicated by a new red bar on the XRP breakout three-line chart, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram signals a strengthening downtrend.
• Bollinger Bands show a pattern that has historically preceded bull market peaks and subsequent declines.

“You’re not optimistic enough!” cried an XRP supporter on X last week after Ripple, which uses the token for international transactions, said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was dropping its case against the company.

Many others have also shared the excitement, and understandably so, as the conclusion of the protracted legal battle has lifted a burden that has held back XRP's relative performance during the 2021 bull run. What's more, there is excitement around an XRP ETF and hopes that the token could become part of the US strategic reserve.

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However, recent price action does not reflect a bullish sentiment, with XRP hovering in the $2.30-$2.50 range and key momentum indicators warning of a significant bearish change in trend.

XRP jumped more than 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday, boosted by the SEC news. Since then, developments have been rather unbullish, despite expectations that President Donald Trump’s upcoming trade tariffs on April 2 may be more moderate than previously thought.

Three Line Break Chart

The first indicator that points to a reversal of a bearish trend is the Three Line Break chart, which focuses solely on price action, filtering out short-term fluctuations. This helps identify changes in trend as predicted by the market, rather than arbitrary or subjective trading rules.

The chart is made up of vertical blocks known as lines or bars (green and red). A bullish reversal occurs with the appearance of a green bar when prices rise above the high of the last three red bars. A bearish shift is indicated by the appearance of a red bar that goes beyond the low of the previous three green bars.

In the case of XRP, a new red bar appeared earlier this month on the weekly time frame and remained after the SEC news. The “weekly” aspect indicates that this chart aggregates price information over a week.