Will there be an altcoin season in Q4?
Blogger Coin22 has released a detailed analysis of the crypto market situation ahead of the final quarter of 2025. The main topic is whether a traditional altseason is possible, or whether the market has entered a new era where funds, macroeconomics, and regulators decide everything.
What is the altseason and how to prepare for it.
A repeat of 2017
According to Coin22, the altcoin dominance chart today is remarkably similar to the 2017 model: protracted consolidation, gradual decline, a bottom, and subsequent vertical growth. Back then, tokens grew by tens and hundreds of percent in a matter of days. However, the blogger warns: the conditions have changed. Unlike 2017, today, the bulk of liquidity is concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the market is tightly dependent on the decisions of the US Federal Reserve, inflation, and the dollar exchange rate.
Altseason in new conditions
Traditionally, alt season is the phase when altcoin returns outpace Bitcoin's growth. The alt season index has been meeting this criterion since mid-September: 75% of 150 altcoins are outperforming BTC. However, according to Coin22, this is unlike past euphoric cycles. Massive pumps of all tokens, like those of 2017 or 2021, will no longer be seen. Currently, only projects with fundamental support and real capital infusions are winning.
Market drivers
Funds and institutions are strengthening their positions. Ethereum's growth is largely driven by capital inflows through ETFs. Similarly, Solana has shown a 170% increase since spring, fueled by massive Galaxy buys. The stablecoin law in the US has become a catalyst for DeFi and smart contracts. A new digital asset bill is on the agenda, which could give altcoins an additional boost. Altcoin ETFs are another important factor. A decision on the Solana ETF is expected in the coming weeks. If approved, it will send a strong signal to the entire market and could pave the way for Ethereum spot ETFs with staking.
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin's dominance currently fluctuates between 56-58%, down from 65% in the spring. Coin22 predicts that this figure could fall to 50-55% in the fourth quarter, paving the way for altcoins to rise. However, this only applies to strong projects, not a sweeping rise for all tokens.
The role of macroeconomics
Future market dynamics depend on the Federal Reserve. According to Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz, if the Fed changes leadership in 2025 and moves toward a more accommodative policy, Bitcoin could test the $200,000 mark. In that case, altcoins would also see significant capital inflows.
Coin22 Forecast
There will be no more mass alt-season growth. Growth of 30-50%, and in some cases up to 100%, is a realistic scenario for the end of 2025. The main factors to consider are fundamentals, liquidity, and institutional interest. The main contenders for growth are Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and other major fund-backed projects.
Coin22 believes the era of crazy Xs is over. Now the winners aren't those who chase the hype, but those who understand the fundamentals and monitor capital flows. The fourth quarter, new trends, and new opportunities await.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
