The fall of cryptocurrencies in February led to record capital outflows from American Bitcoin ETFs. RBC Crypto tells how experts assessed the state of the market and what forecasts they made.
The overall decline in crypto market capitalization could make February 2025 the worst month for Bitcoin since 2014. And for the second-largest cryptocurrency by capitalization, Ethereum, it could be the worst month since 2018. The head of the largest crypto exchange Binance, Richard Teng, said that this is only a “short-term setback.”
A group of US spot bitcoin ETFs, including funds from BlackRock and Fidelity, recorded the largest net outflow of funds in trading on February 25 — more than $1 billion. Total assets under management for all such funds amount to $101.5 billion, according to Sosovalue data as of February 26. This is the sixth trading day in a row that the funds have recorded a net outflow of capital — outflows have amounted to more than $2 billion since February 18.
Net outflow is the difference between the volume of ETF shares redeemed and issued. If the outflow exceeds the inflow, the funds sell bitcoin to cover withdrawal requests. Spot ETFs in the US provide investors with legal access to cryptocurrency through the NASDAQ and NYSE exchanges in the form of shares. The issuance of new shares requires the actual delivery of bitcoin by the funds, which has provided the crypto market with a significant capital inflow and has become a driver of its growth in 2024.
And the outflow on February 25 was the largest since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and exceeded the total capital inflow for the week from January 13 to 17, after which Bitcoin updated its historical maximum above $109 thousand. The previous record for capital outflow was observed on December 19 at $680 million.
The outflow from Ethereum ETFs was more modest than Bitcoin, with funds recording about $50 million in outflows on February 25, marking the fourth consecutive day of negative values, totaling $150 million. Total capital under management in Ethereum ETFs was $9.3 billion.
This happened against the backdrop of the crypto market decline on February 25, which temporarily returned the prices of digital assets to the level observed in mid-November last year. For example, the price of Bitcoin fell to $86.5 thousand, and Ethereum (ETH) – to $2.34 thousand. According to Coinmarketcap data as of February 26, 13:30 Moscow time, the price of Bitcoin returned to $89 thousand, and ETH – to $2.5 thousand.
February could be the worst February ever for the Ethereum price. Of the nine reporting years, ETH only lost value in February in 2018, when the price fell by 24%. In February 2025, according to Coinglass, the figure exceeds the 2018 level by 1%. For Bitcoin, this February could be the worst since 2014, when the main cryptocurrency's quotes collapsed by 31%.
Time correction
Commenting on the market drop on February 25, the head of the largest crypto exchange Binance, Richard Teng, called the situation a “short-term tactical retreat.” He also noted that institutional interest continues to grow, and inflows into ETFs remain strong. Teng’s statement came amid record outflows from Bitcoin-based ETFs.
“It is true that market pullbacks can feel unsettling. But these are the moments when experienced investors prepare for the next uptrend. Cryptocurrency has become an asset class integrated into global finance. Its ability to recover from macroeconomic downturns has been proven,” Teng wrote.
However, experts at Glassnode expressed doubts about the sustainability of the market, suggesting based on their own metrics that “the power of sellers has not yet been exhausted” and a further correction is possible.
Another company specializing in on-chain cryptocurrency market analytics, CryptoQuant, noted the highest daily Bitcoin movements by short-term holders since 2023 — more than 79 thousand BTC, or about $7 billion at the exchange rate on February 26.
On-chain analysis is a specialized type of market trend analysis based on the analysis of data from public blockchains. Based on this information, experts try to predict prices and investor behavior. Glassnode and CryptoQuant are among the most well-known analytical companies in the cryptocurrency space. Short-term holders are defined as bitcoins that have not moved for five months. This group of investors is believed to be most susceptible to emotional decisions during times of market stress.
“This is the biggest Bitcoin sell-off of 2025,” said CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, adding that under the current conditions, on-chain analysis suggests the $80,000 level represents a strong support zone.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
