Experts have analyzed Arthur Hayes' crypto forecasts
16 out of 20 market forecasts by BitMEX crypto exchange founder Arthur Hayes turned out to be incorrect. Two were accurate, while two more concern future prices and cannot yet be verified. This is the conclusion reached by the Protos publication after analyzing 20 market forecasts by the former head of the previously largest derivatives exchange on the crypto market, writes RBC Crypto.
Arthur Hayes is one of the most controversial figures in the crypto market. He is known for his long essays on the place of cryptocurrencies in the global economy, as well as his bright forecasts. He is also the current IT director of the investment fund Maelstrom, which specializes in cryptocurrencies, and the former head of the BitMEX crypto exchange, which was the first to launch perpetual futures on Bitcoin. What are perpetual futures in cryptocurrency. Why are they so popular Hayes remains one of the most famous representatives in the crypto market. His account on the social network X has about 700 thousand subscribers, and almost every message gets more than 100 thousand views. In addition to founding BitMEX, he gained additional fame due to the regular publication of essays on the markets, which are often cited by crypto resources and discussed in the community.
Hayes's successful predictions included a Bitcoin rally in December 2023 amid expectations of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved in the US, as well as a short-term reversal in the Ethereum price in October of that year after falling below $1,600.
Two more of his predictions remain open, one of them is Bitcoin at $1 million by 2028. Hayes cited the US's inability to “rein in government spending” as one of the main reasons for this growth.
In October 2020, US authorities charged BitMEX and its founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo, and Samuel Reed, as well as the platform's CEO Gregory Dwyer, with violating the law: the exchange failed to implement the required anti-money laundering (AML) system, failed to verify clients (KYC procedure), and served US clients without registering with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). All four pleaded guilty, received suspended sentences, and agreed to pay fines. All of them were pardoned by US President Donald Trump at the end of March 2025. As Benjamin Delo noted, according to Coindesk, the BitMEX exchange, as the most successful in its segment, as well as its colleagues, became “victims for political reasons and were used as an example” that US regulators wanted to show the rest of the crypto market.
Examples of Hayes' forecasts
Despite his many erroneous forecasts, Hayes himself has acknowledged the failures of his assumptions. For example, in late September 2024, he analyzed his eight most recent forecasts at that time, covering the period from 2023 to the fall of 2024. Unfortunately, only six of them turned out to be correct.
“It's pretty bad for the average person,” Hayes said of his results.
Here are some of the recent predictions that didn't come true.
On September 6, 2024, Hayes said that Bitcoin would “go below $50,000 this weekend” and announced the opening of a short position (on a price decrease). Then the price fell only to $52.5 thousand, and the coin began an upward movement – already in December, the price of Bitcoin exceeded $100 thousand for the first time.
In early January 2025, Hayes predicted the crypto market would peak in March, but the maximum crypto market capitalization occurred on January 20 — the day of Donald Trump's inauguration. And by March, the crypto market capitalization was about 30% lower than the January peak.
Already in March, the founder of BitMEX bet that Bitcoin would rise to $110 thousand before it touched $76.5 thousand again. But already in April, quotes fell below $75 thousand, and the predicted $110 thousand was never reached, according to Coinmarketcap data on May 14.
Another failed growth forecast affected several tokens at once, including BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO and NEURON. In early January, in one of his essays, Hayes noted the prospects of these tokens – since the beginning of the year, they have all lost from 28 to 89% in price.
Источник: cryptocurrency.tech
