Quantum Breakthrough and Bitcoin (BTC): IBM's Michael Osborne Discusses the Risks

Quantum computing is generating heated debate in the crypto community. Will a powerful computer one day be able to crack Bitcoin's cryptography and empty its wallets?

According to IBM's Michael Osborne, the answer is not so simple, but time moves on.

IBM's Latest Quantum Achievements

IBM recently released an updated roadmap for 2025, showing significant progress toward building the Starling error-proof quantum system.

IBM's Starling project aims to create an error-proof quantum computer by 2029. Unlike current experimental machines, Starling will be capable of reliably running complex algorithms over long periods of time.

We're excited to share our plans for IBM Quantum Starling, expected to be the world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer.

This new system, to be delivered to clients by 2029, is expected to perform 20,000x more operations than today's quantum computers. Read more… pic.twitter.com/zFitqHly4U

— IBM (@IBM) June 10, 2025

This is important for Bitcoin because the cryptography that protects wallets can be broken by a machine with enough stable qubits.

Smaller test systems will be launched in 2025, 2026, and 2027, before Starling launches. Each stage is aimed at improving the reliability of qubits and scaling them. A key breakthrough was a new error-correction method called qLDPC codes. This allows for more useful “logical qubits” to be obtained from fewer physical ones. Simply put, this reduces the size of the machine required to execute dangerous algorithms like Shor's algorithm, which can crack Bitcoin's digital signatures.

If IBM achieves its goal by 2029, the gap between the theory and practice of quantum attacks will narrow. This means the crypto world may have less time to transition to quantum-resistant systems than expected.

Breaking Bitcoin isn't that easy.

IBM Quantum Safe CTO Michael Osborne explained that real breakthroughs depend on logical qubits, not today's noisy experimental qubits.

“You need very high-quality qubits,” the expert said. He cautioned against taking headlines at face value, pointing out that estimates are often based on assumptions about the architecture, circuit depth, and the combination of classical and quantum resources.

Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography. Shor's algorithm could, in theory, break it. Osborne noted that estimates of the number of logical qubits required to crack it vary depending on the amount of time an attacker is willing to invest.

“You can trade the number of qubits for the time you're willing to spend attacking a single key,” he explained.

A recent Google paper suggested that RSA-2048 could be cracked with about 1,600 logical qubits in a week. Previous estimates called for more qubits, but only in a day. Osborne emphasized that such tradeoffs make it difficult to establish a clear timeline.

Beyond Wallets: Broader Risks to Blockchain

Quantum threats don't just affect private keys. IBM's CTO noted that blockchains rely on external systems that also require protection.

“If someone wants to disrupt the blockchain, they can try to attack the consensus protocols,” he said.

Trusted data such as time servers and oracles may be subject to manipulation if not protected from quantum attacks.

This creates two types of risks: those that developers can control (such as signatures and authentication) and those that are outside their control (such as trusted data sources for applications). Both categories require attention.

Early breakthroughs will remain hidden

If a breakthrough occurs, Osborne doubts it will be reported.

“The first quantum feasibility to do something like this will not be announced,” he said.

Instead, experimental machines will likely be secretly tested on high-value targets, such as inactive Bitcoin wallets. The real danger will emerge later, when the technology becomes scalable and more accessible.

Migration must start early

When should blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum transition to post-quantum cryptography? Osborne compared it to the Y2K problem. Waiting is costly, even in the simple digital world.

“The longer you put it off, the higher the price,” he noted.

For blockchains, the challenges increase because upgrades require coordination across millions of users and applications. Hybrid approaches can help, but Osborne cautions that the term is not always clear. In many cases, systems may require two infrastructures, connecting classical and quantum-secure systems, to operate in parallel until the migration is complete.