Not headlines, but broadcasts: Red October presents its November BTC risk map
- Bitcoin's price fell to $106,000 and then rebounded to $109,000, securing a negative close for October.
- The decline was driven by a $1 billion sell-off in retail holdings on Binance and a massive outflow of funds from ETFs.
- Red October story signals risk in November even as 200-week trend holds
Bitcoin's late October correction saw the price briefly drop to $106,000, its lowest in two weeks, before rebounding slightly to $109,000. Despite the drop, the world's largest cryptocurrency's market capitalization remains at $2 trillion, down approximately 3.85% in a month.
Historically, when Bitcoin ended October in the red, as it did last in 2022, it saw a sharp 36.57% drop in November, leading traders to fear a repeat.
Last time October closed red for Bitcoin, November saw a 36.57% drop.
Should we be worried this time? pic.twitter.com/WCm6FZuOZa
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) October 31, 2025
On the topic : Bitcoin's December dilemma: FOMC disagreement on rate cut heightens altcoin uncertainty
Binance and ETFs Sudden Outflow
According to CryptoQuant, on October 30, retail traders on Binance triggered a new wave of selling, selling over 9,200 BTC ($1 billion) at around $107,700. This followed a similar selloff orchestrated by retail traders on October 22, when over 12,000 BTC were sold at around $108,300.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant outflows. BlackRock led the way with a loss of $2.6 billion, followed by Fidelity (-$790 million) and Grayscale (-$500 million).
Source: CryptoQuant
Interestingly, these ETF flows appeared to move inversely with price, meaning selling pressure on October 22 preceded the rebound to $114,700, while renewed buying on October 27 coincided with Bitcoin falling below $107,000.
CryptoQuant analysts said this behavior indicates a predominance of retail investors, with both ETF investors and short-term traders contributing to selling pressure, indicating a local bottom rather than a bear market.
Are Social Fear Spikes an Unusual Buy Signal?
Santiment data supports this opposing view, adding that social media discussions around sub-$100,000 predictions spiked after Bitcoin's drop to $107,000.
On the other hand, discussions about higher price ranges ($150,000-$200,000) have sharply declined. Historically, such fear-based sentiment often marks ideal entry points. Santiment's showed that the last time this sentiment peaked on October 17, Bitcoin rose 12% over the following 10 days.
Meanwhile, Glassnode reported that the $107,000 unrealized losses represent just 1.3% of Bitcoin's market capitalization, which is extremely low compared to moderate bear markets (5%) or severe ones (50%), indicating that the market may be cooling rather than collapsing.
Source: Glassnode
Long-Term Outlook: Is the Market Still Bullish?
The 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $54,750, remains well below Bitcoin's 2021 peak of around $70,000.
Historically, bull markets have ended when this long-term simple moving average rises, testing the highs of previous cycles, as seen in 2017 and 2021–2022. Since this threshold is still far off, Bitcoin may still be in a broader bullish phase despite short-term weakness. However, CoinDesk analysts caution that such patterns have only appeared twice in Bitcoin's history, so forecasts based solely on them are speculative at best.
Related: Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analysts Warn of Deeper Pullback as BlackRock Sells $2B of BTC
Source: cryptonews.net
