Bitcoin Traders Who Predict Price Rise in Q4 2025 May Not Understand Statistics
Traders predicting that Bitcoin will hit its cyclical peak by the end of 2025 may be misunderstanding the principles of statistics, according to one Bitcoin analyst.
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin is set to peak in Q4 2025 doesn’t understand statistics or probability,” PlanC said in a post on Friday.
Figure 1. Source: Daniel Sempere Pico.
“In statistical and probabilistic terms, this is the equivalent of flipping a coin and getting heads three times in a row, and then betting all your money that the fourth flip WILL ALWAYS come up heads,” PlanC said, explaining that relying on three previous halving cycles does not provide enough statistically significant data.
No 'Fundamental Reasons' For Bitcoin To Peak In Q4
The analyst also stated that the halving cycle is no longer relevant for Bitcoin following recent debates in the industry about its relevance, especially with the rise of companies that are dealing in Bitcoin Treasuries and significant inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“There is no fundamental reason – other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy – for the peak to occur in Q4 2025,” he explained.
Q4 has historically been the most successful quarter for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of 85.42%, according to CoinGlass data.
Figure 2. Bitcoin has risen 96.15% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap.
However, if the halving cycle continues, Bitcoin may enter a downward trend as early as October, as analysts have previously noted.
Traders have been divided lately on whether Bitcoin will peak by the end of the year.
There's debate in the industry about whether the bull market will last into 2026
On August 17, Canary Capital CEO Stephen McClurg said that “there is a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin will reach the 140-150 range in 2025 before we see another bear market next year.”
Others expect the bull market to continue into 2026. In July, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said:
“I bet 2026 will be a growth year.”
Meanwhile, a number of analysts have predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 before the end of the year. In April 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that level, and just a month later, in May, Unchained's chief market research officer Joe Burnett made the same prediction.
Source: cryptonews.net
