Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Consolidates as Veteran Trader Bets $438M on Pullback

• Bitcoin is consolidating around $121,000 as traders balance between profit-taking and profit accumulation.
• Open interest in futures jumped to $90 billion, reflecting both optimism and volatility.
• Veteran whale's $438 million short bet raises concerns despite continued market accumulation.

Bitcoin is trading near $121,550, having failed to hold above its recent high of $126,272. The market is consolidating, with traders divided between profit-taking and resuming accumulation. Notably, derivatives and spot data show a split in investor sentiment, as a seasoned trader has placed a large short bet against the leading cryptocurrency.

Market consolidation after sharp growth

Bitcoin jumped from $108,667 to $126,000 before encountering significant resistance, triggering a correction. On the 4-hour chart, the price stabilized in the range between $121,000 and $119,500, which corresponds to key Fibonacci support levels and an EMA. Buyers are defending the 0.618 Fibonacci zone at $119,547, preventing further declines.

BTC Price Dynamics (Source: TradingView)

However, the failure to hold above $126,000 led to a short-term decline in the high, indicating potential exhaustion. Immediate resistance lies near the 20-day EMA at $122,031, followed by $122,774. A decisive break above $123,000 could resume bullish momentum toward $126,272 and beyond. Conversely, a drop below $119,500 could extend the correction to $117,470 and possibly $115,392, where the 200-day EMA provides dynamic support.

Related: XRP Price Prediction: Analysts Show Caution as Whale Selling and Derivatives Flows Limit Upside Potential

Open interest and futures data signal mixed sentiment

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has risen to $90.24 billion, the highest level since the start of the current bull market. This surge indicates increased speculative activity and leverage. Both institutional and retail traders are expanding their positions, demonstrating growing market confidence despite recent volatility.

Source: Coin Glass

Moreover, open interest has risen alongside price movements, reflecting traders' willingness to bet in certain directions. However, such increases often precede increased volatility when positions are closed. If Bitcoin struggles to hold above $120,000, liquidations could exacerbate price movements, especially under leverage.

Spot flows reveal outflows and profit-taking

Bitcoin spot net flows are volatile, with inflows and outflows alternating until 2025. On October 10, exchanges recorded a net outflow of $119.71 million, when the coin was trading at approximately $121,600. The continued outflow since late September suggests investors are taking profits after reaching new all-time highs.

Source: Coin Glass

In previous months, short-term surges in capital inflows exceeding $600 million coincided with economic recovery. However, ongoing capital outflows now signal weakening market momentum. Historically, such phases precede periods of consolidation before major reversals or trend continuations.

Experienced trader's large short position heightens caution

Market tensions intensified when an early Bitcoin holder opened a leveraged short position worth $438 million on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. The trade size is 3,600 BTC, with a liquidation threshold of $139,900. This move reflects a calculated expectation of a short-term decline, possibly hedging after earlier spot sales.

The Bitcoin OG has increased his short position to 3,600 $BTC($438M) — currently sitting on a $3.66M unrealized loss.

Liquidation price: $139,900https://t.co/01e3RC8jG2 pic.twitter.com/LrUfbzdf0p

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) October 10, 2025

According to lookonchain data, the same company sold 3,000 BTC this week and over 35,000 BTC last month, presumably shifting some of its capital to Ethereum. Such actions highlight strategic diversification, but are not pure bearish sentiment and continue to encourage traders to remain cautious.

Related: Ethereum Price Prediction: ETF Flows Get Mixed as BlackRock Accumulates

Bitcoin Price Technical Forecast

Critical levels are also clear: Bitcoin is holding near $121,550 after retracing from its recent high near $126,272. The 4-hour chart shows the retracing is close to Fibonacci retracement levels and major moving averages.

• Upside levels: $122,774 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement) and $123,000 as immediate resistance, followed by $126,272 (the recent high) as the main hurdle. A breakout of this range could push Bitcoin to $128,500 and $130,000.

• Downside Levels: Immediate support is found at $121,150–$119,500 (0.618 Fibonacci level), followed by $117,470 (0.5 Fibonacci level) and $115,392 (0.382 Fibonacci level). The 200-day EMA near $116,954 provides a strong dynamic basis for a broader uptrend.

• Resistance ceiling: The $122,000–$123,000 zone remains critical for renewed bullish momentum. Sustained trading above this area could restore momentum and facilitate further accumulation.

The technical picture points to Bitcoin consolidation in a narrowing range, suggesting a decline in volatility before the next decisive breakout. The overall trend remains positive as long as the price holds above $119,500.

Will Bitcoin's Rally Continue?

Bitcoin's short-term momentum will be determined by the bulls' ability to hold support at $119,500 until they can retest support at $123,000. A breakout above this level would accelerate the rally to $126,272 and beyond, supported by strong open interest in futures and steady ETF inflows. On the other hand, a failure to hold above $119,000 could trigger a correction to $117,000.

Related: Dogecoin Price Prediction: Traders Predict $0.30 Amid New DOGE Consolidation

Source: cryptonews.net