Bitcoin price has been stuck in a relatively small range for a long time and can't break out
The Bitcoin rate has entered a consolidation phase and is holding in a narrow range of $104,000–$116,000. After reaching a new historical maximum, the market has entered a cooling phase. ETF flows have noticeably decreased, and demand for futures has also weakened. Investors are actively buying up dips, but pressure from large participants is currently holding back growth.
According to Glassnode, the price peak was the third euphoric phase in the current cycle. Since then, BTC has returned to the 0.85-0.95 cost quantile zone, which in previous years often became a stage of sideways movement before a new trend. In the current scenario, the market is balancing between regaining confidence and the risk of a deeper correction.
The dynamics of short-term holders are particularly noticeable. Their profitability fell from over 90% to 42% during the sell-off, and then recovered closer to 60%. This level is considered neutral, but fragile. Experts believe that a break above $114,000-$116,000 can restore optimism, and a drop below $110,000 will lead to an accelerated search for liquidity in the $105,000 region.
The situation is complicated by a cooling of sentiment off-chain. Futures volumes and open interest are falling, indicating a decline in speculative activity. Options trades increasingly reflect downside hedging. Retail investors are betting on growth, but funds and large holders are preferring caution and neutral positions.
ETFs remain a key indicator. At the moment when Bitcoin quotes fell below $110,000, short-term inflows were observed, but they were insufficient to reverse the trend. Sustainable positive flows from large wallets to accumulation may become a “trigger” for a breakthrough of the BTC rate above $118,000. Without this, the market risks remaining in a protracted consolidation.
Thus, Bitcoin has found itself in a zone of increased tension. Retail traders continue to buy coins on dips, but large capitals remain cautious.
Source: cryptonews.net
