Bitcoin enters November, its strongest month ever for growth.
Bitcoin has entered November, which historically has been the most significant month for cryptocurrency growth. The average price increase in November since 2013 is 42.51%, suggesting a potential $160,000 mark this month if historical trends continue.
However, the cryptoanalyst noted that macroeconomic factors also play an important role.
“I think seasonal charts are important, but they need to be combined with a lot of other factors,” said crypto analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
Looking ahead, further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are expected, as well as work on a US-China trade deal. Both of these factors could be favorable for Bitcoin. However, the US government shutdown and trade tariffs continue to heighten economic uncertainty.
Here's an overview of the key events to watch in the coming weeks.
Easing trade tensions between the US and China
US President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday was seen as a positive step towards ending trade tensions between the two countries.
Trump described his talks with the Chinese leader in South Korea as “amazing.” Among the discussions was Trump's agreement to reduce tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing's measures to combat fentanyl trafficking, resume purchases of American soybeans, and lift restrictions on rare earth metal exports for a year.
Bitcoin's monthly returns since 2013. Source: CoinGlass
Trump told reporters that he expects a trade deal with China to be reached “pretty soon.”
Trump's threat to impose tariffs on China was blamed for the recent crypto market crash, which wiped out $19 billion in 24 hours on October 11. The crypto market has struggled to recover since then.
However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at its China Initiative, told CBC News that the meeting was more of a “pause” in the trade war, but that it was far from over.
The US Federal Reserve will cut rates and end quantitative tightening.
Fed officials voted yesterday for another quarter-point rate cut, lowering their benchmark lending rate to its lowest level in three years.
The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for December 10, 2025. Data from CME's FedWatch tool, used to measure expectations for a Fed rate change, shows that traders are pricing in a 63% chance of a rate cut.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets on Wednesday by saying the decision was “not a foregone conclusion.”
The Fed's rate cut is seen as a positive for Bitcoin, as lower borrowing costs have historically encouraged investors to trade riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
An additional factor was the Federal Reserve's recent decision to end its quantitative easing program effective December 1. Quantitative tightening is the process of reducing the central bank's balance sheet. Its purpose is to cool an overheated economy and prevent inflation from rising too quickly.
Source: Arthur Hayes.
The opposite process, quantitative easing, involves central banks injecting more money into the economy and is seen as beneficial for the crypto market, as some of that money is channeled into alternative assets.
The US government shutdown continues
The US government shutdown will soon enter its fifth week, approaching the longest in the country's history, as Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over a government spending plan.
On Thursday, Trump called on Republicans to repeal the Senate filibuster, which allows a small group of senators to block the majority's actions. He blames this practice for the government shutdown.
“THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – ACTIVATE THE NUCLEAR OPTION, GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTRIA AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Ending the government shutdown is seen as a necessary step for the final approval of several cryptocurrency ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as progress on the passage of the Crypto Market Framework Act, also known as the CLARITY Act.
Source: cryptonews.net
