Bitcoin correction may deepen before recovery

According to Glassnode, only about 9% of Bitcoin's total supply is currently in unrealized losses, which are less than 10%. This contrasts with the current cycle's local bottom in April, when more than 25% of supply was in losses of up to 23%, and BTC's price corrected by 29% from its January peak, falling to $75,000. By comparison, during past cycles' global bear markets, the share of supply in losses exceeded 50%, and the depth of losses reached 78%.

Depth of the current correction
Since hitting an all-time high of $124,500 on August 14, Bitcoin has declined about 13.4%, hitting $107,500 earlier this week. While the correction looks significant in absolute terms, it remains relatively modest in historical context. Bitcoin fell 36% in September 2017 and 24% in 2021 before rebounding in the fourth quarter. The key difference in the current situation is the unprecedented institutional buying pressure from ETFs and corporate treasuries, which could soften the depth of the decline.

Prospects and Key Levels
Entrepreneur Ted Pollios draws parallels with the corrections of the second quarter of 2025 and the third quarter of 2024, when the asset lost up to 30% of its value. He does not rule out testing the level below $100,000, but considers this as part of a typical correction before updating historical maximums.

MN Fund co-founder Michael van de Poppe emphasizes the upcoming Fed meeting on September 17, where the probability of a rate cut is estimated at 91%. In his opinion, the approach of this event reduces the likelihood of a continuation of the downward trend, especially in the event of overcoming the resistance in the $112,000 zone.

Current dynamics
Bitcoin is showing a recovery on Wednesday morning, reaching $111,500 after an intraday low of $108,500 on Tuesday. For the growth to continue, it needs to consolidate above the key resistance of $112,000. If it fails, the next significant support target is $105,000. BTC market capitalization has increased by 1.3% in 24 hours, amounting to $3.93 trillion.

Thus, the current correction remains within the historical norms for Bitcoin bull markets, and institutional demand may be a factor limiting further declines. Macroeconomic data and central bank decisions will be decisive for the short-term dynamics.

Source: cryptonews.net