Bitcoin Bull Market Will End in October
Bitcoin's previous bull cycles have lasted around 1,060 days. If history repeats itself, the current rally could peak as early as October
Anxiety is growing as September approaches – traditionally the weakest month for the main cryptocurrency.
Historical pattern points to October
Many pessimistic forecasts have not come true, and the current rally has been going on for three years. However, investors are now more concerned not with its duration, but with the scale of the movement. Thus, analyst Inmortal notes that previous bullish cycles lasted about 1060 days.
Past Bull Markets. Source: Inmortal on X
“If the pattern repeats, the peak of the current cycle will be in October,” he predicts.
Another analyst, Jelle, believes that Bitcoin bulls have about 55 days left in their pocket. According to him, this forecast is in line with the dynamics of Solana and Ethereum, which are also preparing to renew their price highs. Altcoins usually peak about a month after BTC.
Bearish signals on charts
The technical picture is also not in Bitcoin’s favor. Analyst Ali points to a bearish divergence on the weekly chart: BTC price is making new highs, while the relative strength index (RSI) is showing lower lows. A similar divergence was observed before the cycle top in 2021.
Other indicators such as Spot Taker CVD and Taker Buy/Sell Ratio also point to a possible increase in selling. These concerns are reinforced by seasonal factors: according to Coinglass, the average return for Bitcoin in September has historically been -3.77%, making it the worst month of the year.
The main thing is missing – euphoria
However, it is worth noting that these forecasts are based solely on historical data and technical signals, ignoring market sentiment.
“Many are expecting a BTC peak in the next couple of months, and I think it's possible. But one element is missing – euphoria. Sentiment is a key indicator of a market top, and we don't see any signs of general excitement yet,” notes analyst Colin Talks Crypto.
Adding to the uncertainty is the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision in September, which could set the direction of Bitcoin for the rest of the year.
Source: cryptonews.net
