An analyst warned that the Bitcoin market is entering a late-cycle phase.

The world's first cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 stock index are in the “late stages of a bull market,” according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.

BTC and S&P 500 remain in the late bull phase: S&P 500 52-Week Return = +13%, the market is still in risk-on mode. BTC–S&P correlation = 0.26 — the relationship is moderately positive: bitcoin tends to move in the same direction as equities, but is not entirely dependent on them.… pic.twitter.com/E5JP7aTJZw

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) October 23, 2025

According to him, the market remains in risk-acceptance mode, and the annual return of the S&P 500 is +13%.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index is 0.26. This indicates a weak but positive relationship: the leading cryptocurrency often follows stock market performance, but is not entirely independent of it.

The analyst emphasized that the S&P 500 is sensitive to macroeconomic and political news, so its cooling could quickly impact the price of the leading cryptocurrency.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the focus will shift to companies' revenues, the expert believes. After two years of growth, the market will evaluate actual results.

Third-quarter earnings season is currently in full swing. Of the 58 companies that have already reported, all have exceeded forecasts. Expected profit growth has increased from 7% to 8%. Adler Jr. noted that this picture is typical of the final stages of a bull market.

Bitcoin influx on Binance

Over the past 30 days, major holders of the world's leading cryptocurrency have transferred $5.56 billion worth of assets to the Binance exchange, according to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn.

Whale Flow to Binance Hits $5.56B Over the Last 30 Days

“The total inflow for the day reached $1.07B. During this period, Bitcoin's price surged from $108K to $113K before retracing back to $108K, likely influenced by these substantial transfers.” – By @JA_Maartun pic.twitter.com/SbwkuDaJCF

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 23, 2025

The expert monitored an indicator that tracks transactions worth over 1,000 BTC. The indicator points to an influx of assets from whales, which could impact the price of digital gold.

The indicator spiked on October 21st, when $1.07 billion worth of bitcoins entered the exchange. The analyst highlighted several major transactions:

04:00 — $43.74 million;
08:00 — $21.63 million and $162.24 million;
10:00 — $143.77 million and $323.43 million;
17:00 — $39.45 million;
18:00 — $336.95 million

Against the backdrop of these transfers, the price of Bitcoin rose from $108,000 to $113,000, after which it corrected to $108,000.

The “pain” of short-term investors

Glassnode analysts reported a decline in speculative activity in the market. According to them, recent cryptocurrency buyers are experiencing “financial stress,” a sign of market cooling.

Experts cite the metric of unrealized profits and losses among short-term holders. Its current values reflect growing pressure on this group of investors.

Glassnode emphasized that historically, periods of “pain” for speculators coincide with the emergence of healthier market conditions. Reducing excessive speculation could lead to price stabilization, the experts concluded.

As a reminder, CryptoQuant contributors from ShayanMarkets reported that the MVRV coefficient on the chart of the first cryptocurrency fell below the 365-day simple moving average, marking a local minimum.