Strategy's Rise in Bitcoin Purchases Has Little Impact on Market Prices, TD Cowen Says
TD Cowen analysts analyzed Strategy's treasury activity in the context of bitcoin trading volumes and price changes over the past six months.
Author: Helen Brown | Edited by: Nikhilesh De Updated: April 21, 2025, 5:09 PM Published: April 21, 2025, 3:53 PM
What you need to know:
- Despite its significant investments in Bitcoin, Strategy's acquisitions have had little or no long-term impact on BTC's price, according to new research from TD Cowen.
- The analysis found that Strategy's bitcoin purchases averaged only 3.3% of weekly trading volume and had little statistical relationship with price changes.
- While Strategy's treasury strategy doesn't move markets, it continues to deliver strong shareholder value, with Bitcoin holdings up 306% since the start of 2023.
Despite Strategy's growing presence as a major corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC), large purchases of the cryptocurrency appear to have minimal, if any, impact on its price, according to research from TD Cowen.
The results, released Monday, challenge the widely held view among skeptics that Strategy's aggressive buying is helping to prop up the price of bitcoin and that without consistent demand, prices will fluctuate. However, according to the analysis, that argument has little force.
Large buyer, but small market share
Strategy recently issued another 1.8 million shares in its at-the-market (ATM) offering, raising an additional $842 million in net proceeds. The funds were used to purchase 6,556 bitcoins, increasing the firm’s bitcoin return this quarter by 1% to 12.1%. However, compared to the broader bitcoin market, these purchases represent a drop in the bucket.
Strategy’s bitcoin purchases have averaged just 3.3% of weekly trading volume, according to TD Cowen analysis. Over the past 27 weeks, the company’s overall activity has accounted for 8.4% of volume — but that figure has been skewed by a few weeks in which its purchases briefly exceeded 20%. In eight of those weeks, Strategy didn’t buy any bitcoin at all.
“We conclude that in most cases it is unlikely that Strategy’s purchases could have had a sustained, significant impact on the price of Bitcoin,” TD Cowen analysts said.
Correlation? Not really.
Further analysis examined the relationship between Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases and market prices — and found that it was statistically weak. The correlation coefficient between Strategy’s weekly Bitcoin purchase volume and the end-of-week BTC price was only 25%. When comparing purchases with weekly price changes, the correlation increased only slightly, to 28%.
Given that the correlation coefficient is close to 0, indicating little or no correlation, these results suggest little or no connection between Strategy's actions and short-term market movements, let alone any lasting impact on prices, the article says.
What about the leading miners?
Another common criticism is that Strategy often purchases more Bitcoin than it mines in a given period, which implies that it is creating pressure on prices. While this is technically true, analysis shows that this claim is incorrect.
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