March Job Updates Report 'Heads I Win, Tails You Lose' Moment for Bitcoin Bulls
Bitcoin prices holding above March lows amid Trump tariffs suggest sellers are exhausted.
Author: Omkar Godbole | Edited by: Oliver Knight Updated: Apr 4, 2025 8:50 AM Published: Apr 4, 2025 8:38 AM
What you need to know:
- President Trump's announcement of tariffs on 180 countries has prompted markets to price in recession risks and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut.
- A high NFP reading for March could be seen as retrospective, while a weak report could heighten recession fears.
- Bitcoin price stability above March lows indicates sellers are exhausted, and implied volatility predicts potential price swings of 3.4% over the next 24 hours.
With the important March US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report approaching, Bitcoin (BTC) supporters find themselves in a situation reminiscent of the character Two-Face (Harvey Dent) in The Dark Knight, flipping coins and making decisions, confident that he controls his destiny regardless of the outcome.
It's a classic case of “heads I win, tails you lose,” meaning Bitcoin supporters are likely to come out on top after the upcoming jobs report, regardless of whether the data shows strength or weakness in the labor market.
The situation came after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on 180 countries on Wednesday, prompting markets to price in recession risks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
As a result, stronger-than-expected employment data, which typically strengthens the dollar and puts pressure on risk assets like BTC, could be dismissed as outdated given the recent events caused by Trump’s policies. Thus, any drop in BTC after a potentially hot NFP report could be quickly offset, leading to gains.
On the other hand, weak data will only increase recession fears and support expectations of a Fed rate cut, which will increase risks in financial markets.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $84,190, after hitting lows below $82,000 on Thursday, according to CoinDesk. The fact that prices have remained well above their March low of $77,000 despite peak tariff uncertainty suggests sellers are exhausted and there is potential for higher prices.
The Volmex Bitcoin One-Day Implied Volatility Index was 65% year-over-year, indicating an expected price swing of 3.4% over the next 24 hours.
Employment data is due at 12:30 UTC. The median estimate for total nonfarm payrolls in March is 130,000, down from 151,000 in February, according to FactSet. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Ahead of the data, traders are expecting the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points this year, with the first cut expected in June, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool.
